Century Aluminum (CENX): Evaluating Valuation After Glencore’s Significant Share Sale and Shift in Ownership

Century Aluminum (CENX) shares slid sharply after Glencore, the company’s largest shareholder, sold 9 million shares in a block trade at a discount. This sale meaningfully reduced Glencore's ownership stake and prompted a wave of market volatility.

See our latest analysis for Century Aluminum.

While the Glencore block trade triggered a sharp one-day share price drop of 0.9% and a one-week retreat of nearly 13%, this comes within a broader context of impressive gains. Century Aluminum’s share price is still up more than 60% year-to-date, and the three-year total shareholder return stands at a remarkable 239%, underscoring momentum that remains robust despite short-term turbulence.

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With analyst price targets well above recent trading levels and a hefty intrinsic valuation discount, is Century Aluminum stock being overlooked? Or has the market already factored in all the company’s future growth potential?

Most Popular Narrative: 20.1% Undervalued

With Century Aluminum closing at $28.78, the most widely followed narrative points to a fair value of $36, which is significantly higher and signals potential upside based on projected financials. Market optimism is fueled by assumptions around future growth and policy tailwinds, laying the groundwork for bold price expectations.

“The expansion and restart of Mt. Holly, along with progress on a new U.S. smelter, positions Century Aluminum to meaningfully increase U.S. primary aluminum production, capturing rising domestic demand driven by reshoring of supply chains and incentivized by government tariffs and trade protections, supporting future revenue growth and improved fixed cost absorption, thus enhancing net margins.”

Read the complete narrative.

Want to know why market watchers think this aluminum producer could command a much higher share price? There is a bold set of growth projections behind that valuation, one that could surprise anyone only following recent headlines. Discover which future milestones, margin leaps, and quantitative levers drive this fair value call. Dive in for the financial story behind the headline number.

Result: Fair Value of $36 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, shifts in U.S. trade policy or unexpected aluminum price swings could quickly challenge the current narrative and reduce Century Aluminum’s growth outlook.

Find out about the key risks to this Century Aluminum narrative.

Build Your Own Century Aluminum Narrative

If you feel differently or want to dig deeper into the details, you can quickly construct your own view using the latest data in just a few minutes. Do it your way

A great starting point for your Century Aluminum research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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