Stock Analysis

These 4 Measures Indicate That AgroFresh Solutions (NASDAQ:AGFS) Is Using Debt Extensively

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NasdaqGS:AGFS
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Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. We can see that AgroFresh Solutions, Inc. (NASDAQ:AGFS) does use debt in its business. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.

Why Does Debt Bring Risk?

Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.

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How Much Debt Does AgroFresh Solutions Carry?

The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that AgroFresh Solutions had debt of US$257.9m at the end of September 2021, a reduction from US$269.6m over a year. However, it does have US$43.3m in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about US$214.6m.

debt-equity-history-analysis
NasdaqGS:AGFS Debt to Equity History January 6th 2022

A Look At AgroFresh Solutions' Liabilities

According to the last reported balance sheet, AgroFresh Solutions had liabilities of US$49.1m due within 12 months, and liabilities of US$299.4m due beyond 12 months. On the other hand, it had cash of US$43.3m and US$78.4m worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities total US$226.8m more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.

The deficiency here weighs heavily on the US$114.1m company itself, as if a child were struggling under the weight of an enormous back-pack full of books, his sports gear, and a trumpet. So we'd watch its balance sheet closely, without a doubt. After all, AgroFresh Solutions would likely require a major re-capitalisation if it had to pay its creditors today.

In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.

While AgroFresh Solutions's debt to EBITDA ratio (4.0) suggests that it uses some debt, its interest cover is very weak, at 0.32, suggesting high leverage. In large part that's due to the company's significant depreciation and amortisation charges, which arguably mean its EBITDA is a very generous measure of earnings, and its debt may be more of a burden than it first appears. So shareholders should probably be aware that interest expenses appear to have really impacted the business lately. Worse, AgroFresh Solutions's EBIT was down 70% over the last year. If earnings continue to follow that trajectory, paying off that debt load will be harder than convincing us to run a marathon in the rain. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if AgroFresh Solutions can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.

Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So we always check how much of that EBIT is translated into free cash flow. Happily for any shareholders, AgroFresh Solutions actually produced more free cash flow than EBIT over the last three years. That sort of strong cash generation warms our hearts like a puppy in a bumblebee suit.

Our View

To be frank both AgroFresh Solutions's EBIT growth rate and its track record of staying on top of its total liabilities make us rather uncomfortable with its debt levels. But on the bright side, its conversion of EBIT to free cash flow is a good sign, and makes us more optimistic. Overall, it seems to us that AgroFresh Solutions's balance sheet is really quite a risk to the business. For this reason we're pretty cautious about the stock, and we think shareholders should keep a close eye on its liquidity. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. Case in point: We've spotted 1 warning sign for AgroFresh Solutions you should be aware of.

If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.

What are the risks and opportunities for AgroFresh Solutions?

AgroFresh Solutions, Inc. provides science-based solutions, data-driven technologies, and high-touch customer services.

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Rewards

  • Trading at 5.4% below our estimate of its fair value

  • Revenue is forecast to grow 9.9% per year

Risks

  • Currently unprofitable and not forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years

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