AIA Group Limited

OTCPK:AAIG.F Stock Report

Market Cap: US$80.6b

AIA Group Valuation

Is AAIG.F undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of AAIG.F when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: AAIG.F ($7.53) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($12.95)

Significantly Below Fair Value: AAIG.F is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for AAIG.F?

Key metric: As AAIG.F is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for AAIG.F. This is calculated by dividing AAIG.F's market cap by their current earnings.
What is AAIG.F's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio16.7x
EarningsUS$4.83b
Market CapUS$80.59b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does AAIG.F's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for AAIG.F vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average13.3x
AFL Aflac
16.6x-2.6%US$63.3b
MET MetLife
17.2x13.3%US$61.1b
PRU Prudential Financial
11.4x6.4%US$46.1b
UNM Unum Group
8x-3.9%US$14.0b
AAIG.F AIA Group
16.8x13.9%US$629.4b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: AAIG.F is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.8x) compared to the peer average (13.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does AAIG.F's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Insurance Industry?

3 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
UTGN UTG
2xn/aUS$89.87m
AORE.F American Overseas Group
2.1xn/aUS$16.68m
CUII China United Insurance Service
0.0003xn/aUS$3.13k
No more companies available in this PE range
AAIG.F 16.7xIndustry Avg. 13.9xNo. of Companies13PE01020304050+
3 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: AAIG.F is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.8x) compared to the US Insurance industry average (13.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is AAIG.F's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

AAIG.F PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio16.7x
Fair PE Ratio11.7x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: AAIG.F is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.8x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.7x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst AAIG.F forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$7.53
US$11.96
+59.0%
8.6%US$14.27US$9.52n/a18
Nov ’25US$7.65
US$11.94
+56.1%
8.6%US$14.28US$9.52n/a18
Oct ’25US$8.79
US$11.63
+32.3%
7.4%US$12.83US$9.49n/a18
Sep ’25US$6.99
US$11.94
+70.8%
15.0%US$18.54US$9.49n/a19
Aug ’25US$6.44
US$11.92
+85.1%
14.8%US$18.54US$9.48n/a19
Jul ’25US$6.87
US$12.09
+75.9%
13.9%US$18.54US$9.46n/a20
Jun ’25US$7.76
US$12.13
+56.3%
13.8%US$18.54US$9.46n/a20
May ’25US$7.40
US$12.07
+63.2%
14.0%US$18.54US$9.46n/a20
Apr ’25US$6.75
US$12.38
+83.3%
13.1%US$18.54US$10.23n/a20
Mar ’25US$7.90
US$12.60
+59.4%
14.3%US$18.54US$10.23n/a20
Feb ’25US$7.90
US$12.76
+61.5%
13.6%US$18.54US$10.23n/a20
Jan ’25US$8.72
US$12.81
+47.0%
12.7%US$18.58US$11.11n/a21
Dec ’24US$8.54
US$12.91
+51.2%
12.9%US$18.54US$11.11n/a20
Nov ’24US$8.64
US$12.76
+47.7%
12.7%US$18.52US$11.11US$7.6519
Oct ’24US$8.10
US$13.24
+63.5%
12.1%US$18.50US$11.10US$8.7920
Sep ’24US$9.16
US$13.21
+44.2%
11.9%US$18.49US$10.97US$6.9921
Aug ’24US$9.71
US$13.44
+38.4%
10.7%US$18.56US$11.55US$6.4423
Jul ’24US$10.14
US$13.45
+32.7%
10.6%US$18.54US$11.48US$6.8723
Jun ’24US$9.75
US$13.49
+38.4%
10.5%US$18.47US$11.48US$7.7623
May ’24US$10.74
US$13.49
+25.6%
10.5%US$18.47US$11.47US$7.4023
Apr ’24US$10.47
US$13.54
+29.3%
10.9%US$18.48US$11.47US$6.7523
Mar ’24US$10.86
US$13.46
+24.0%
11.9%US$18.51US$9.94US$7.9025
Feb ’24US$11.28
US$13.39
+18.7%
13.2%US$18.51US$8.84US$7.9025
Jan ’24US$11.10
US$12.88
+16.0%
13.9%US$18.16US$8.84US$8.7224
Dec ’23US$10.26
US$12.53
+22.1%
15.0%US$18.16US$8.79US$8.5424
Nov ’23US$7.95
US$12.53
+57.6%
15.9%US$18.09US$8.79US$8.6423

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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