Is The Progressive Corporation's (NYSE:PGR) Latest Stock Performance A Reflection Of Its Financial Health?

Progressive (NYSE:PGR) has had a great run on the share market with its stock up by a significant 7.8% over the last month. Since the market usually pay for a company’s long-term fundamentals, we decided to study the company’s key performance indicators to see if they could be influencing the market. Specifically, we decided to study Progressive's ROE in this article.

Return on equity or ROE is an important factor to be considered by a shareholder because it tells them how effectively their capital is being reinvested. Simply put, it is used to assess the profitability of a company in relation to its equity capital.

View our latest analysis for Progressive

How To Calculate Return On Equity?

Return on equity can be calculated by using the formula:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Progressive is:

33% = US$8.5b ÷ US$26b (Based on the trailing twelve months to December 2024).

The 'return' is the amount earned after tax over the last twelve months. That means that for every $1 worth of shareholders' equity, the company generated $0.33 in profit.

What Has ROE Got To Do With Earnings Growth?

Thus far, we have learned that ROE measures how efficiently a company is generating its profits. Based on how much of its profits the company chooses to reinvest or "retain", we are then able to evaluate a company's future ability to generate profits. Assuming everything else remains unchanged, the higher the ROE and profit retention, the higher the growth rate of a company compared to companies that don't necessarily bear these characteristics.

Progressive's Earnings Growth And 33% ROE

Firstly, we acknowledge that Progressive has a significantly high ROE. Additionally, the company's ROE is higher compared to the industry average of 15% which is quite remarkable. This probably laid the groundwork for Progressive's moderate 6.4% net income growth seen over the past five years.

As a next step, we compared Progressive's net income growth with the industry and were disappointed to see that the company's growth is lower than the industry average growth of 12% in the same period.

The basis for attaching value to a company is, to a great extent, tied to its earnings growth. The investor should try to establish if the expected growth or decline in earnings, whichever the case may be, is priced in. By doing so, they will have an idea if the stock is headed into clear blue waters or if swampy waters await. What is PGR worth today? The intrinsic value infographic in our free research report helps visualize whether PGR is currently mispriced by the market.

Is Progressive Efficiently Re-investing Its Profits?

Progressive has a healthy combination of a moderate three-year median payout ratio of 28% (or a retention ratio of 72%) and a respectable amount of growth in earnings as we saw above, meaning that the company has been making efficient use of its profits.

Moreover, Progressive is determined to keep sharing its profits with shareholders which we infer from its long history of paying a dividend for at least ten years. Upon studying the latest analysts' consensus data, we found that the company is expected to keep paying out approximately 27% of its profits over the next three years. Regardless, Progressive's ROE is speculated to decline to 23% despite there being no anticipated change in its payout ratio.

Summary

On the whole, we feel that Progressive's performance has been quite good. Specifically, we like that the company is reinvesting a huge chunk of its profits at a high rate of return. This of course has caused the company to see a good amount of growth in its earnings. With that said, the latest industry analyst forecasts reveal that the company's earnings growth is expected to slow down. To know more about the latest analysts predictions for the company, check out this visualization of analyst forecasts for the company.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.