Is Globe Life Inc.'s (NYSE:GL) Stock Price Struggling As A Result Of Its Mixed Financials?

It is hard to get excited after looking at Globe Life's (NYSE:GL) recent performance, when its stock has declined 8.1% over the past three months. It seems that the market might have completely ignored the positive aspects of the company's fundamentals and decided to weigh-in more on the negative aspects. Stock prices are usually driven by a company’s financial performance over the long term, and therefore we decided to pay more attention to the company's financial performance. In this article, we decided to focus on Globe Life's ROE.

Return on equity or ROE is a key measure used to assess how efficiently a company's management is utilizing the company's capital. In short, ROE shows the profit each dollar generates with respect to its shareholder investments.

Check out our latest analysis for Globe Life

How Do You Calculate Return On Equity?

ROE can be calculated by using the formula:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Globe Life is:

9.0% = US$771m ÷ US$8.6b (Based on the trailing twelve months to September 2021).

The 'return' is the income the business earned over the last year. One way to conceptualize this is that for each $1 of shareholders' capital it has, the company made $0.09 in profit.

What Has ROE Got To Do With Earnings Growth?

We have already established that ROE serves as an efficient profit-generating gauge for a company's future earnings. Based on how much of its profits the company chooses to reinvest or "retain", we are then able to evaluate a company's future ability to generate profits. Generally speaking, other things being equal, firms with a high return on equity and profit retention, have a higher growth rate than firms that don’t share these attributes.

Globe Life's Earnings Growth And 9.0% ROE

When you first look at it, Globe Life's ROE doesn't look that attractive. However, its ROE is similar to the industry average of 11%, so we won't completely dismiss the company. Having said that, Globe Life's net income growth over the past five years is more or less flat. Remember, the company's ROE is not particularly great to begin with. Hence, this provides some context to the flat earnings growth seen by the company.

Next, on comparing with the industry net income growth, we found that the industry grew its earnings by12% in the same period.

The basis for attaching value to a company is, to a great extent, tied to its earnings growth. What investors need to determine next is if the expected earnings growth, or the lack of it, is already built into the share price. By doing so, they will have an idea if the stock is headed into clear blue waters or if swampy waters await. Is GL fairly valued? This infographic on the company's intrinsic value has everything you need to know.

Is Globe Life Using Its Retained Earnings Effectively?

Globe Life's low three-year median payout ratio of 10% (implying that the company keeps90% of its income) should mean that the company is retaining most of its earnings to fuel its growth and this should be reflected in its growth number, but that's not the case.

In addition, Globe Life has been paying dividends over a period of at least ten years suggesting that keeping up dividend payments is way more important to the management even if it comes at the cost of business growth. Our latest analyst data shows that the future payout ratio of the company over the next three years is expected to be approximately 9.5%. As a result, Globe Life's ROE is not expected to change by much either, which we inferred from the analyst estimate of 9.1% for future ROE.

Conclusion

In total, we're a bit ambivalent about Globe Life's performance. Even though it appears to be retaining most of its profits, given the low ROE, investors may not be benefitting from all that reinvestment after all. The low earnings growth suggests our theory correct. With that said, we studied the latest analyst forecasts and found that while the company has shrunk its earnings in the past, analysts expect its earnings to grow in the future. Are these analysts expectations based on the broad expectations for the industry, or on the company's fundamentals? Click here to be taken to our analyst's forecasts page for the company.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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