Brown & Brown, Inc. Beat Analyst Estimates: See What The Consensus Is Forecasting For This Year

A week ago, Brown & Brown, Inc. (NYSE:BRO) came out with a strong set of quarterly numbers that could potentially lead to a re-rate of the stock. The company beat expectations with revenues of US$1.3b arriving 3.4% ahead of forecasts. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) were US$1.02, 8.0% ahead of estimates. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

View our latest analysis for Brown & Brown

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Brown & Brown from nine analysts is for revenues of US$4.66b in 2024. If met, it would imply a reasonable 7.5% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory per share are forecast to be US$3.16, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$4.58b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$3.05 in 2024. So the consensus seems to have become somewhat more optimistic on Brown & Brown's earnings potential following these results.

The consensus price target was unchanged at US$89.93, implying that the improved earnings outlook is not expected to have a long term impact on value creation for shareholders. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Brown & Brown, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$98.00 and the most bearish at US$80.00 per share. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Brown & Brown's past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Brown & Brown's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 10% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 14% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 6.0% annually. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Brown & Brown is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Brown & Brown's earnings potential next year. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$89.93, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Brown & Brown going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Brown & Brown that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.