Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.'s (NYSE:AJG) Stock On An Uptrend: Could Fundamentals Be Driving The Momentum?

Arthur J. Gallagher's (NYSE:AJG) stock is up by a considerable 12% over the past three months. We wonder if and what role the company's financials play in that price change as a company's long-term fundamentals usually dictate market outcomes. Specifically, we decided to study Arthur J. Gallagher's ROE in this article.

Return on equity or ROE is an important factor to be considered by a shareholder because it tells them how effectively their capital is being reinvested. In other words, it is a profitability ratio which measures the rate of return on the capital provided by the company's shareholders.

See our latest analysis for Arthur J. Gallagher

How Do You Calculate Return On Equity?

The formula for ROE is:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Arthur J. Gallagher is:

9.8% = US$1.1b ÷ US$12b (Based on the trailing twelve months to June 2024).

The 'return' refers to a company's earnings over the last year. So, this means that for every $1 of its shareholder's investments, the company generates a profit of $0.10.

What Has ROE Got To Do With Earnings Growth?

Thus far, we have learned that ROE measures how efficiently a company is generating its profits. We now need to evaluate how much profit the company reinvests or "retains" for future growth which then gives us an idea about the growth potential of the company. Assuming everything else remains unchanged, the higher the ROE and profit retention, the higher the growth rate of a company compared to companies that don't necessarily bear these characteristics.

Arthur J. Gallagher's Earnings Growth And 9.8% ROE

On the face of it, Arthur J. Gallagher's ROE is not much to talk about. A quick further study shows that the company's ROE doesn't compare favorably to the industry average of 13% either. Arthur J. Gallagher was still able to see a decent net income growth of 11% over the past five years. We reckon that there could be other factors at play here. For instance, the company has a low payout ratio or is being managed efficiently.

As a next step, we compared Arthur J. Gallagher's net income growth with the industry and found that the company has a similar growth figure when compared with the industry average growth rate of 10% in the same period.

Earnings growth is a huge factor in stock valuation. What investors need to determine next is if the expected earnings growth, or the lack of it, is already built into the share price. By doing so, they will have an idea if the stock is headed into clear blue waters or if swampy waters await. Is Arthur J. Gallagher fairly valued compared to other companies? These 3 valuation measures might help you decide.

Is Arthur J. Gallagher Efficiently Re-investing Its Profits?

Arthur J. Gallagher has a three-year median payout ratio of 41%, which implies that it retains the remaining 59% of its profits. This suggests that its dividend is well covered, and given the decent growth seen by the company, it looks like management is reinvesting its earnings efficiently.

Moreover, Arthur J. Gallagher is determined to keep sharing its profits with shareholders which we infer from its long history of paying a dividend for at least ten years. Our latest analyst data shows that the future payout ratio of the company is expected to drop to 24% over the next three years. Accordingly, the expected drop in the payout ratio explains the expected increase in the company's ROE to 20%, over the same period.

Conclusion

Overall, we feel that Arthur J. Gallagher certainly does have some positive factors to consider. With a high rate of reinvestment, albeit at a low ROE, the company has managed to see a considerable growth in its earnings. Having said that, looking at the current analyst estimates, we found that the company's earnings are expected to gain momentum. Are these analysts expectations based on the broad expectations for the industry, or on the company's fundamentals? Click here to be taken to our analyst's forecasts page for the company.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.