American Financial Group, Inc.

NYSE:AFG Stock Report

Market Cap: US$11.5b

American Financial Group Valuation

Is AFG undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of AFG when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: AFG ($136.04) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($304.9)

Significantly Below Fair Value: AFG is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for AFG?

Key metric: As AFG is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for AFG. This is calculated by dividing AFG's market cap by their current earnings.
What is AFG's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio12.8x
EarningsUS$895.00m
Market CapUS$11.50b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does AFG's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for AFG vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average11.9x
AIZ Assurant
14.7x14.5%US$11.0b
CNA CNA Financial
10x15.8%US$13.1b
AXS AXIS Capital Holdings
12.1x14.4%US$7.5b
L Loews
11xn/aUS$18.4b
AFG American Financial Group
12.8x6.8%US$11.5b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: AFG is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.8x) compared to the peer average (11.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does AFG's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Insurance Industry?

3 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
UTGN UTG
2xn/aUS$93.02m
AORE.F American Overseas Group
2.1xn/aUS$16.44m
CUII China United Insurance Service
0.0003xn/aUS$3.13k
No more companies available in this PE range
AFG 12.8xIndustry Avg. 12.9xNo. of Companies14PE01020304050+
3 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: AFG is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.8x) compared to the US Insurance industry average (13x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is AFG's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

AFG PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio12.8x
Fair PE Ratio15.3x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: AFG is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.8x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.3x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst AFG forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$136.04
US$149.60
+10.0%
6.8%US$165.00US$135.00n/a5
Dec ’25US$146.86
US$146.20
-0.4%
5.5%US$155.00US$132.00n/a5
Nov ’25US$127.71
US$141.60
+10.9%
6.7%US$155.00US$132.00n/a5
Oct ’25US$135.34
US$140.20
+3.6%
6.6%US$155.00US$132.00n/a5
Sep ’25US$133.62
US$139.00
+4.0%
6.6%US$155.00US$128.00n/a6
Aug ’25US$128.78
US$138.00
+7.2%
5.0%US$147.00US$128.00n/a6
Jul ’25US$122.93
US$139.50
+13.5%
5.3%US$152.00US$133.00n/a6
Jun ’25US$129.91
US$140.83
+8.4%
5.3%US$152.00US$133.00n/a6
May ’25US$128.74
US$139.17
+8.1%
4.9%US$147.00US$129.00n/a6
Apr ’25US$134.77
US$134.67
-0.08%
8.4%US$147.00US$121.00n/a6
Mar ’25US$127.37
US$133.67
+4.9%
7.9%US$147.00US$121.00n/a6
Feb ’25US$117.48
US$130.67
+11.2%
6.8%US$147.00US$121.00n/a6
Jan ’25US$118.89
US$128.50
+8.1%
6.6%US$143.00US$118.00n/a6
Dec ’24US$116.46
US$127.20
+9.2%
6.9%US$143.00US$118.00US$146.865
Nov ’24US$111.12
US$131.00
+17.9%
8.1%US$143.00US$120.00US$127.714
Oct ’24US$111.67
US$133.25
+19.3%
10.0%US$148.00US$120.00US$135.344
Sep ’24US$117.63
US$137.67
+17.0%
9.1%US$148.00US$120.00US$133.623
Aug ’24US$122.06
US$152.00
+24.5%
1.4%US$155.00US$150.00US$128.783
Jul ’24US$118.75
US$166.33
+40.1%
6.9%US$182.00US$155.00US$122.933
Jun ’24US$112.75
US$166.33
+47.5%
6.9%US$182.00US$155.00US$129.913
May ’24US$123.09
US$169.00
+37.3%
6.5%US$182.00US$155.00US$128.743
Apr ’24US$121.50
US$168.00
+38.3%
6.9%US$183.00US$155.00US$134.773
Mar ’24US$136.53
US$168.00
+23.0%
6.9%US$183.00US$155.00US$127.373
Feb ’24US$138.02
US$168.67
+22.2%
6.8%US$183.00US$155.00US$117.483
Jan ’24US$137.28
US$171.50
+24.9%
5.5%US$181.00US$162.00US$118.892
Dec ’23US$142.34
US$164.33
+15.5%
7.8%US$181.00US$150.00US$116.463

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/30 08:12
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/30 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

American Financial Group, Inc. is covered by 17 analysts. 6 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Michael ZaremskiBMO Capital Markets Equity Research
Jay CohenBofA Global Research
Amit KumarBuckingham Research Group Inc.