American Financial Group Past Earnings Performance
Past criteria checks 3/6
American Financial Group's earnings have been declining at an average annual rate of -3.1%, while the Insurance industry saw earnings growing at 14.6% annually. Revenues have been growing at an average rate of 6.2% per year. American Financial Group's return on equity is 18.8%, and it has net margins of 11.1%.
Key information
-3.06%
Earnings growth rate
-2.41%
EPS growth rate
| Insurance Industry Growth | 8.02% |
| Revenue growth rate | 6.24% |
| Return on equity | 18.79% |
| Net Margin | 11.06% |
| Last Earnings Update | 31 Mar 2026 |
Recent past performance updates
Recent updates
Seeking Alpha • Jul 07
American Financial Group: 15% Capital Appreciation Potential From Its Baby Bonds
Summary American Financial Group (AFG) reported Q1 2026 total assets of $32.35 billion and total debt of $2.03 billion. AFG's total equity stands at approximately $4.68 billion, with EBITDA near $1.32 billion for the quarter. The company’s current market capitalization is about $11.86 billion. AFG achieved a 5-year total return of 10% and a 10-year total return of 12.24%, underscoring consistent long-term performance. AFG's baby bonds have a yield to maturity of over 7.6% and a capital appreciation potential of nearly 15%. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Narrative Update • Jun 12
AFG: Fair Value View Will Highlight Mixed Q1 Results And Earnings Tailwind
Analysts have maintained their $142.83 price target on American Financial Group, citing only modest adjustments to assumed revenue trends, profit margin outlook, and forward P/E as the reasons for keeping their valuation view unchanged. What's in the News Q1 2026 results showed revenue of US$1.85b, which met Wall Street expectations, while adjusted EPS of US$2.47 and net premiums earned came in below consensus estimates by 3.4% and 5.2%, respectively.Narrative Update • May 28
AFG: Fair Value Outlook Will Reflect Softer Margins And Richer P/E Multiple
Analysts have raised their price target for American Financial Group by $1 to about $143, reflecting updated assumptions for slightly softer revenue trends, a modestly lower profit margin profile, and a higher future P/E of roughly 13.6x. Valuation Changes Fair Value: revised up slightly from $141.83 to $142.83 per share, a change of about $1.00.Narrative Update • May 09
AFG: Buybacks And Special Dividend Will Support Future Shareholder Returns At Fair Value
Analysts have nudged their fair value estimate for American Financial Group up by $1 to $141.83, citing updated assumptions for discount rates, revenue trends, profit margins and future P/E expectations. Valuation Changes Fair Value: The estimate has risen slightly from $140.83 to $141.83.Narrative Update • Apr 18
AFG: Buybacks And Special Dividend Will Support Steady Shareholder Returns At Fair Value
Analysts have slightly reduced their average price target for American Financial Group, from about $141.50 to roughly $140.83. This reflects updated views on fair value that incorporate modest adjustments to revenue growth, profit margin and forward P/E assumptions.Narrative Update • Apr 01
AFG: Buybacks And Special Dividend Will Support Steady Shareholder Returns At Fair Value
Analysts have increased their price target on American Financial Group by $1 to $141.50, citing updated assumptions around fair value and forward P/E while keeping other key model inputs broadly unchanged. What's in the News The Board of Directors declared a special cash dividend of $1.50 per share, payable on February 25, 2026, to shareholders of record on February 16, 2026 (Key Developments).Narrative Update • Mar 18
AFG: Buybacks And Special Dividend Will Sustain Shareholder Returns At Stable Outlook
Analysts have kept their price target for American Financial Group steady at $140.50, citing unchanged assumptions around discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E. This indicates that their valuation view is currently stable.Narrative Update • Mar 04
AFG: Buybacks And Special Dividend Will Support Shareholder Returns At Fair Valuation
Analysts have nudged their price target for American Financial Group up from $138.20 to $140.50, citing updated assumptions around revenue trends, profit margin resilience near 13.34%, and a forward P/E of about 13.36x. What's in the News The Board of Directors declared a special cash dividend of $1.50 per share, payable on February 25, 2026, to shareholders of record on February 16, 2026 (Key Developments).Narrative Update • Feb 17
AFG: Expanded Buybacks And Special Dividend Will Continue To Drive Shareholder Returns
Analysts have trimmed their price target for American Financial Group by about $4 to around $138, reflecting updated assumptions for fair value, discount rate, revenue growth and future P/E that are now slightly more conservative. What's in the News The board declared a special cash dividend of $1.50 per share, payable on February 25, 2026, to shareholders of record on February 16, 2026 (Key Developments).Narrative Update • Feb 02
AFG: Expanded Buybacks And Special Dividend Will Shape Future Shareholder Returns
Analysts have trimmed their price target for American Financial Group by about US$2.47 to roughly US$142, reflecting updated fair value estimates and slightly adjusted assumptions for revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E. What's in the News On December 3, 2025, American Financial Group expanded its equity buyback authorization by 5,000,000 shares to a total of 57,188,938 shares and extended the program through December 31, 2030 (company announcement).Narrative Update • Jan 19
AFG: Expanded Buybacks And Special Dividend Will Shape Measured Future Shareholder Returns
Analysts have raised their price target on American Financial Group to about $144.67 from roughly $140.60, citing updated assumptions around fair value, discount rate, revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E, which slightly adjust their outlook on the shares. What's in the News On December 3, 2025, American Financial Group expanded its equity buyback authorization by 5,000,000 shares to a total of 57,188,938 shares and extended the program through December 31, 2030 (Key Developments).Narrative Update • Jan 05
AFG: Expanded Buybacks And Special Dividend Will Support Future Shareholder Returns
Analysts have modestly reaffirmed their outlook on American Financial Group, maintaining a target price of $140.60. They continue to see stable discount rates, largely unchanged revenue growth expectations, and steady profit margin and valuation assumptions.Narrative Update • Dec 19
AFG: Buybacks And Rising Dividends Will Support Returns Despite Margin Pressure
Analysts have modestly raised their price target on American Financial Group by approximately 1 dollar to reflect slightly improved revenue trajectory expectations, which are partially offset by a slimmer projected profit margin and a marginally higher future earnings multiple. What's in the News The board has approved an increase to American Financial Group's equity buyback authorization by 5,000,000 shares and extended the program through December 31, 2030.Narrative Update • Dec 05
AFG: Buybacks And Dividends Will Sustain Returns Amid Softer Revenue Outlook
Analysts trimmed their average price target for American Financial Group slightly to approximately $139.60, citing modestly softer revenue growth expectations, partly offset by marginally improved profit margin forecasts and a steady valuation multiple outlook. What's in the News American Financial Group updated its share repurchase activity, buying back 788,134 shares, or about 0.95% of shares outstanding, for $96.57 million in the third quarter of 2025.Narrative Update • Nov 21
AFG: Higher Buyback Activity And Dividend Boost Will Support Long-Term Value
Analysts have raised their price target for American Financial Group from $137.40 to $140.20, citing improved profit margin projections and a more optimistic outlook on future revenue trends. What's in the News The company repurchased 788,134 shares for $96.57 million between July and September 2025, completing a total buyback of nearly 47% of company shares since 2010 (company announcement).Narrative Update • Nov 05
AFG: Dividend Increases And Stable Outlook Will Drive Shareholder Returns
Analysts have maintained their price target for American Financial Group at $137.40, citing stable assumptions regarding the company's earnings outlook and growth prospects. What's in the News The Board of Directors declared a special cash dividend of $2.00 per share.Narrative Update • Oct 22
Analysts Raise American Financial Group Price Target as Dividends and Revenue Outlook Improve
Analysts have slightly increased their price target for American Financial Group from $135.00 to $137.40. They cite modest improvements in projected revenue growth as the primary rationale for this adjustment.Narrative Update • Oct 08
Digital Transformation And Demographic Shifts Will Expand Insurance Markets
Analysts have raised their price target for American Financial Group from $132.60 to $135.00. This reflects increased optimism tied to improved profit margin forecasts.Analysis Article • Oct 05
American Financial Group's (NYSE:AFG) Upcoming Dividend Will Be Larger Than Last Year's
American Financial Group, Inc.'s ( NYSE:AFG ) dividend will be increasing from last year's payment of the same period...Narrative Update • Sep 03
Digital Transformation And Demographic Shifts Will Expand Insurance Markets
The upward revision in American Financial Group’s consensus price target reflects improved revenue growth forecasts, while other key profitability metrics remain essentially unchanged, resulting in a modest increase in fair value to $132.60. What's in the News Increased regular annual dividend by 10% to $3.52 per share, marking the twentieth consecutive year of dividend increases; ten-year compound annual dividend growth rate is 12.3%.Seeking Alpha • Mar 25
AFGC Debentures Still A Buy For Longer-Term Income Investors
Summary AFGC debentures offer an attractive yield of 6.52%, making them a solid choice for income investors with a medium-to-long-term perspective. Despite short-term concerns, AFG remains financially strong, supported by its excess capital and special dividends, making it a reliable investment. AFG's recent earnings show modest improvements, with total revenues and net income up year-over-year, despite short-term EPS declines. AFGC debentures are currently trading below face value, presenting a potential gain for long-term investors as they will eventually be redeemed at $25.00. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Jan 30
American Financial Group: Q4 2024 Earnings Preview
Summary American Financial Group is a mid-sized P&C insurer with strong underwriting performance and a focus on specialty lines, leading to consistent profitability. AFG's Q4 2024 earnings are expected to recover, with a combined ratio of around 88.7% and net income rising to $263 million. The company has a solid financial position, with excess capital and a flexible capital return policy, though its income appeal is less predictable. AFG's premium valuation limits short-term upside potential, making W. R. Berkley Corporation a potentially better value for long-term investors in the P&C sector. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Jan 23
American Financial Group: A Financially Stable Property Insurer And Dividend Grower
Summary Prior buy rating gets reiterated, after more in-depth analysis shows a financially stable property/casualty insurer with solid credit ratings. The dividend case can be made with a proven 5-year dividend CAGR, positive cashflow, and steady profitability along with a good profit margin. Catastrophe losses from weather/fire events are always a risk that has a business impact on this sector. Among P&C insurers in the US, AFG was ranked just below the top 20 in 2023, as bigger brands like State Farm and Allstate dominate this space. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
New Narrative • Aug 23
Alternative Investments And Calculated Underwriting Propel Insurance Giant To New Heights
Strategic underwriting and capital management efforts are poised to enhance underwriting margins, shareholder value, and EPS.Seeking Alpha • Aug 07
American Financial Group: Solid Underwriting In Q2 With Potential Benefits From Rental Inflation
Summary American Financial Group's Q2 results beat estimates with improved underwriting margins driving gains, partially offset by lower alternative investment income. Premium growth lagged inflation due to reduced policies, but underwriting profits were solid across segments and crop growth should accelerate in Q3. Higher interest rates benefited AFG's investment income, and the apartment market may be bottoming, supporting future earnings growth. At 11x forward earnings, AFG is attractive given its strong insurance franchise and potential gains in alternative investments. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Jun 05
American Financial: Debentures Better Than Dividends For Income Investors
Summary American Financial's C-series baby bond now offers investors a return of more than 6.0%. Or, investors could buy AFG common stock for regular dividends, potential special dividends, share buybacks, and capital gains. However, for income investors, the AFGC baby bond offers a less volatile share price and low risk thanks to the parent company's profitable growth. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • May 09
American Financial Group: Attractive Due To Solid Underwriting And Multifamily Upside
Summary American Financial Group has seen moderate performance, rising 16% in the past year and paying out special dividends. AFG's Q1 results showed improved underwriting and strong premium growth driven by pricing increases. The company's specialty P&C combined ratio was strong, and its underwriting profits remained flat from last year's Q1. While multifamily reduced investment returns in Q1 and will weigh in 2024, long-term fundamentals are positive. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaRevenue & Expenses Breakdown
Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
How American Financial Group makes and spends money. Based on latest reported earnings, on an LTM basis.
Earnings and Revenue History
| Date | Revenue | Earnings | G+A Expenses | R&D Expenses |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Mar 26 | 7,947 | 879 | 42 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 25 | 7,941 | 842 | 42 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 25 | 8,014 | 798 | 41 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 25 | 8,032 | 764 | 41 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 25 | 7,987 | 799 | 41 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 24 | 8,010 | 887 | 41 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 24 | 7,916 | 895 | 36 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 24 | 7,696 | 891 | 36 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 24 | 7,621 | 882 | 36 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 23 | 7,452 | 852 | 36 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 23 | 7,311 | 865 | 36 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 23 | 7,163 | 853 | 36 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 23 | 6,906 | 820 | 36 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 22 | 6,810 | 898 | 36 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 22 | 6,681 | 977 | 41 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 22 | 6,476 | 1,031 | 41 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 22 | 6,472 | 1,104 | 41 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 21 | 6,393 | 1,081 | 41 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 21 | 6,297 | 991 | 47 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 21 | 6,132 | 860 | 47 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 21 | 6,047 | 733 | 47 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 20 | 5,579 | 325 | 47 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 20 | 6,035 | 271 | 0 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 20 | 6,552 | 330 | 0 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 20 | 7,050 | 427 | 0 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 19 | 5,974 | 519 | 47 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 19 | 7,572 | 657 | 0 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 19 | 7,459 | 714 | 0 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 19 | 7,337 | 714 | 0 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 18 | 6,939 | 530 | 0 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 18 | 7,070 | 725 | 0 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 18 | 6,904 | 532 | 0 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 18 | 6,720 | 467 | 0 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 17 | 6,684 | 475 | 0 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 17 | 6,615 | 694 | 0 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 17 | 6,492 | 792 | 0 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 17 | 6,440 | 701 | 0 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 16 | 6,345 | 649 | 0 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 16 | 6,240 | 393 | 0 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 16 | 6,227 | 347 | 0 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 16 | 6,199 | 434 | 0 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 15 | 6,194 | 352 | 0 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 15 | 6,131 | 350 | 0 | 0 |
Quality Earnings: AFG has high quality earnings.
Growing Profit Margin: AFG's current net profit margins (11.1%) are higher than last year (10%).
Free Cash Flow vs Earnings Analysis
Past Earnings Growth Analysis
Earnings Trend: AFG's earnings have declined by 3.1% per year over the past 5 years.
Accelerating Growth: AFG's earnings growth over the past year (10%) exceeds its 5-year average (-3.1% per year).
Earnings vs Industry: AFG earnings growth over the past year (10%) did not outperform the Insurance industry 36.2%.
Return on Equity
High ROE: AFG's Return on Equity (18.8%) is considered low.
Return on Assets
Return on Capital Employed
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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/07/13 22:00 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/07/13 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/03/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
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| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
| |
| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
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Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
American Financial Group, Inc. is covered by 16 analysts. 5 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| null null | BMO Capital Markets Equity Research |
| Michael Zaremski | BMO Capital Markets Equity Research |
| Jay Cohen | BofA Global Research |