American Financial Group, Inc.'s (NYSE:AFG) Stock's On An Uptrend: Are Strong Financials Guiding The Market?

American Financial Group (NYSE:AFG) has had a great run on the share market with its stock up by a significant 11% over the last three months. Given the company's impressive performance, we decided to study its financial indicators more closely as a company's financial health over the long-term usually dictates market outcomes. Specifically, we decided to study American Financial Group's ROE in this article.

Return on equity or ROE is a key measure used to assess how efficiently a company's management is utilizing the company's capital. Put another way, it reveals the company's success at turning shareholder investments into profits.

View our latest analysis for American Financial Group

How To Calculate Return On Equity?

The formula for return on equity is:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for American Financial Group is:

20% = US$852m ÷ US$4.3b (Based on the trailing twelve months to December 2023).

The 'return' is the amount earned after tax over the last twelve months. One way to conceptualize this is that for each $1 of shareholders' capital it has, the company made $0.20 in profit.

Why Is ROE Important For Earnings Growth?

Thus far, we have learned that ROE measures how efficiently a company is generating its profits. Depending on how much of these profits the company reinvests or "retains", and how effectively it does so, we are then able to assess a company’s earnings growth potential. Assuming everything else remains unchanged, the higher the ROE and profit retention, the higher the growth rate of a company compared to companies that don't necessarily bear these characteristics.

American Financial Group's Earnings Growth And 20% ROE

To begin with, American Financial Group seems to have a respectable ROE. Further, the company's ROE compares quite favorably to the industry average of 13%. Probably as a result of this, American Financial Group was able to see a decent growth of 13% over the last five years.

Next, on comparing with the industry net income growth, we found that American Financial Group's growth is quite high when compared to the industry average growth of 7.5% in the same period, which is great to see.

Earnings growth is a huge factor in stock valuation. The investor should try to establish if the expected growth or decline in earnings, whichever the case may be, is priced in. Doing so will help them establish if the stock's future looks promising or ominous. One good indicator of expected earnings growth is the P/E ratio which determines the price the market is willing to pay for a stock based on its earnings prospects. So, you may want to check if American Financial Group is trading on a high P/E or a low P/E, relative to its industry.

Is American Financial Group Making Efficient Use Of Its Profits?

American Financial Group has a low three-year median payout ratio of 23%, meaning that the company retains the remaining 77% of its profits. This suggests that the management is reinvesting most of the profits to grow the business.

Besides, American Financial Group has been paying dividends for at least ten years or more. This shows that the company is committed to sharing profits with its shareholders. Our latest analyst data shows that the future payout ratio of the company is expected to rise to 56% over the next three years. Regardless, the ROE is not expected to change much for the company despite the higher expected payout ratio.

Summary

In total, we are pretty happy with American Financial Group's performance. Particularly, we like that the company is reinvesting heavily into its business, and at a high rate of return. Unsurprisingly, this has led to an impressive earnings growth. With that said, the latest industry analyst forecasts reveal that the company's earnings growth is expected to slow down. To know more about the latest analysts predictions for the company, check out this visualization of analyst forecasts for the company.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.