Results: TWFG, Inc. Beat Earnings Expectations And Analysts Now Have New Forecasts

Shareholders of TWFG, Inc. (NASDAQ:TWFG) will be pleased this week, given that the stock price is up 10% to US$28.49 following its latest quarterly results. It looks to have been a decent result overall - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at US$60m, statutory earnings beat expectations by a notable 19%, coming in at US$0.13 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

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Following the latest results, TWFG's seven analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$244.7m in 2025. This would be a decent 12% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to expand 17% to US$0.47. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$245.5m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.39 in 2025. Although the revenue estimates have not really changed, we can see there's been a nice gain to earnings per share expectations, suggesting that the analysts have become more bullish after the latest result.

View our latest analysis for TWFG

There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of US$35.00, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on TWFG, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$42.00 and the most bearish at US$32.00 per share. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting TWFG is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. The analysts are definitely expecting TWFG's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 25% annualised growth to the end of 2025 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 18% per annum over the past year. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 5.5% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that TWFG is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards TWFG following these results. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$35.00, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple TWFG analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We also provide an overview of the TWFG Board and CEO remuneration and length of tenure at the company, and whether insiders have been buying the stock, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.