TWFG Past Earnings Performance
Past criteria checks 4/6
TWFG has been growing earnings at an average annual rate of 61.8%, while the Insurance industry saw earnings growing at 14.7% annually. Revenues have been growing at an average rate of 34.7% per year. TWFG's return on equity is 19.4%, and it has net margins of 3%.
Key information
61.78%
Earnings growth rate
38.73%
EPS growth rate
| Insurance Industry Growth | 8.02% |
| Revenue growth rate | 34.74% |
| Return on equity | 19.39% |
| Net Margin | 2.98% |
| Last Earnings Update | 30 Jun 2026 |
Recent past performance updates
Recent updates
Narrative Update • Sep 03
TWFG: Soft Market Resilience And Underwriting Strength Will Reprice Shares
The analyst price target for TWFG has shifted from $30 to $34, reflecting updated views that emphasize the stock's valuation relative to peers, expectations for solid underwriting profit, and resilience within the broader insurance sector. Analyst Commentary Recent research updates on TWFG show a series of price target revisions and rating changes that give you a clearer picture of how Wall Street views the stock.Seeking Alpha • Aug 23
TWFG: The P&C Cycle Presents Higher Hurdles
Summary TWFG remains a growth leader in independent insurance distribution, leveraging agency consolidation and technology-driven solutions. Despite robust earnings and margin expansion, gross premiums are declining, signaling potential future headwinds as the P&C cycle softens. Valuation is stretched at nearly 50x PE, significantly above peers, reflecting high-growth expectations and contributing to elevated stock volatility. I maintain a HOLD rating due to downside risks from high valuation, softening premiums, and peaking scale efficiencies, despite ongoing earnings growth. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Narrative Update • Aug 17
TWFG: Fair Outlook Balances Soft Insurance Cycle With AI And M&A Plans
Analysts have raised the TWFG fair value estimate from $24.00 to $26.00, reflecting a series of higher Street price targets that highlight differing views on growth, margins, and appropriate P/E levels for the stock. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on TWFG presents a mixed picture for investors, with several firms lifting price targets while also flagging clear risks around growth durability, valuation and the broader insurance cycle.
Narrative Update • Aug 03
TWFG: Softening Insurance Cycle And AI Risk Will Shape Resilient But Balanced Outlook
Analysts have raised the TWFG fair value estimate by about $4 per share to roughly $27.57. They point to a series of higher Street price targets that reflect views that certain insurance brokers, including TWFG, may hold up better as pricing softens across the wider insurance market.Narrative Update • Jul 20
TWFG: Soft Market Resilience And 2026 Outlook Are Set To Reprice Shares
The analyst fair value estimate for TWFG has increased from $27.00 to $30.00. This move reflects a series of higher Street price targets as analysts highlight the stock's relative resilience in a softer insurance market and the potential for brokers to sustain recent gains more effectively than carriers.Narrative Update • Jul 06
TWFG: Cautious Multiple Reset Will Meet Stronger Margins And Confirmed 2026 Outlook
Analysts have reduced the TWFG fair value estimate from $39.00 to $27.00, citing lower price targets across the Street, a higher discount rate, more cautious revenue growth assumptions, and a smaller future P/E multiple, partly offset by updated profit margin expectations. Analyst Commentary Street research on TWFG has leaned more cautious on valuation, but the tone is not uniformly negative.Narrative Update • Jun 22
TWFG: AI Disintermediation And Organic Slowdown Risks Temper Fairly Balanced Outlook
Analysts have trimmed their average price target on TWFG to about $23.57 from $24.29, reflecting slightly lower valuation multiples as they factor in concerns about AI disintermediation and a potential stepdown in organic growth later this year. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on TWFG highlights a mixed read, with several firms cutting price targets and pointing to both company specific issues and broader property and casualty insurance trends following the Q1 reporting season.Narrative Update • Jun 07
TWFG: AI Disintermediation Concerns Will Eventually Reset Earnings Multiple Higher
TWFG's updated analyst price target moves down by about $1.40 as analysts factor in ongoing concerns around AI disintermediation, a potential stepdown in organic growth, and recalibrated sector multiples following recent Q1 results. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on TWFG reflects a more cautious tone, with several firms trimming price targets after the Q1 earnings season and reassessing how AI, organic growth trends, and sector-wide premium patterns could affect the stock's risk and reward balance.Analysis Article • May 11
TWFG, Inc. Just Beat EPS By 37%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next
A week ago, TWFG, Inc. ( NASDAQ:TWFG ) came out with a strong set of quarterly numbers that could potentially lead to a...Narrative Update • Apr 24
TWFG: Organic Execution And AI Adoption Will Support Future Earnings Repricing
Narrative Update on TWFG TWFG's consensus analyst price target has been reduced by several dollars, reflecting analysts' updated models following recent earnings, revised sector assumptions, and mixed reactions to earlier target cuts and raises across major firms. Analyst Commentary Recent research on TWFG clusters around a reset in expectations, with multiple firms trimming price targets while still highlighting a mix of execution strengths and valuation concerns.Narrative Update • Apr 09
TWFG: Organic Execution And AI Adoption Will Drive Future Earnings Repricing
Analysts have trimmed their TWFG price targets by $3 overall, reflecting updated assumptions for fair value, profit margins, and future P/E, even as revenue growth estimates are adjusted in their models. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on TWFG shows a cluster of price target revisions, with most firms trimming their targets by a few dollars while keeping existing ratings in place.New Narrative • Apr 06
AI And Softening Insurance Pricing Will Pressure Margins Yet Longer Term Upside Remains
Catalysts About TWFG TWFG provides insurance distribution and related services through retail agencies and managing general agent platforms across personal, commercial and specialty lines. What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?Narrative Update • Mar 25
TWFG: Organic Execution And AI Adoption Will Support Future Repricing Potential
Narrative Update on TWFG Analyst Price Target The consolidated analyst price target for TWFG has been adjusted to $28, reflecting a series of recent target revisions. These include cuts from $39 to $34 and from $31 to $28, alongside one increase from $22 to $24, as analysts update their models for Q4 results, management guidance, and views on organic growth, margins, and AI commentary.Narrative Update • Mar 11
TWFG: Personal Lines Focus And AI Adoption Will Support Future Repricing Potential
The analyst fair value estimate for TWFG has been reduced from $31.57 to $28.00, reflecting recent cuts to Street price targets and updates to models following Q4 results and management guidance. Analyst Commentary Street research on TWFG has been mixed, with several firms revising price targets after Q4 results and management guidance.New Narrative • Feb 24
Returning Carrier Appetite And High Retention Will Support A Stronger TWFG Earnings Profile
Catalysts About TWFG TWFG operates an independent, agent centric insurance distribution platform across retail agencies and MGA programs in the United States. What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?Narrative Update • Feb 24
TWFG: Personal Lines Focus And Management Will Support Future Repricing Potential
Analysts have trimmed their fair value estimate for TWFG to about $31.57 from $33, reflecting reduced Street price targets, including Piper Sandler's cut to $22 from $32, as they factor in the recent selloff and a more cautious stance on insurance brokers. Analyst Commentary Recent Street commentary around TWFG centers on the reset in price targets following the sector selloff and a more guarded view on insurance brokers in general.Analysis Article • Feb 11
Not Many Are Piling Into TWFG, Inc. (NASDAQ:TWFG) Just Yet
It's not a stretch to say that TWFG, Inc.'s ( NASDAQ:TWFG ) price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 1.5x right now seems...Narrative Update • Feb 08
TWFG: Personal Lines Focus And Management Strength Will Drive Future Upside
Narrative Update on TWFG The analyst price target for TWFG has shifted to a clustered range around $31 to $33, reflecting updated sector models and a continued focus on the company’s long term growth potential in Personal Lines brokerage. This comes even as analysts highlight softening property and casualty conditions and emerging earnings headwinds into 2026.Narrative Update • Jan 24
TWFG: Personal Lines Positioning And Management Quality Will Support Future Upside
Narrative Update Analysts now peg TWFG's price target at US$33. Recent research highlights expectations for steady revenue growth, modest adjustments to profit margins, and supportive views on its role in the Personal Lines brokerage space.Narrative Update • Jan 08
TWFG: Personal Lines Focus And Management Discipline Will Support Future Returns
Narrative Update on TWFG Analysts have kept their TWFG price target unchanged at US$33, reflecting expectations for steady fair value alongside modest tweaks to growth, margin, and P/E assumptions, supported by recent research that highlights both emerging P&C headwinds and a constructive view on the company’s long term personal lines brokerage opportunity and management quality. Analyst Commentary Recent research updates give you a mixed but useful read on how the Street is thinking about TWFG, with price targets clustering around the low US$30s and views shaped by both company specific strengths and property and casualty (P&C) cycle risks.Narrative Update • Dec 24
TWFG: Personal Lines And Management Quality Will Support Returns Through Softer Cycle
Analysts have nudged our TWFG price target higher to $33 from $31, reflecting expectations for resilient long term growth, steady ROE and book value expansion, even as a softening P&C cycle and emerging earnings headwinds temper sector wide optimism. Analyst Commentary Street research on TWFG reflects a balanced mix of optimism on the company specific growth story and caution around the broader property and casualty backdrop, with recent price target moves clustering in the low to mid 30 dollar range.Narrative Update • Dec 10
TWFG: Personal Lines Strength Will Support Returns Through Softening Property And Casualty Cycle
Analysts have nudged their blended price target on TWFG modestly higher to about $33, reflecting expectations for faster top line growth into 2026, even as a softening P&C cycle and emerging earnings headwinds temper profit margin and valuation assumptions. Analyst Commentary Street research points to a balanced but cautiously optimistic view on TWFG, with recent target changes clustering in the low to mid 30s and ratings tilting toward positive but not universally bullish.Narrative Update • Nov 26
TWFG: Resilient Earnings Outlook Will Drive Long-Term Strength Amid Softening Cycle
The analyst price target for TWFG has been raised slightly from $32.67 to $33.00 as analysts cite expectations for steady long-term growth, despite emerging headwinds in the property and casualty insurance sector. Analyst Commentary Recent analyst reports on TWFG reveal a mix of optimism and caution as the company navigates the evolving landscape of property and casualty insurance.Narrative Update • Nov 07
TWFG: Margin Expansion And Strong Cost Management Will Drive Resilience Amid Headwinds
Analysts have modestly reduced their price targets for TWFG, citing sector-wide commercial property and casualty headwinds and a slowdown in organic growth. New targets now range from $30 to $39, down from previous estimates as high as $42.Narrative Update • Oct 24
Branch Expansion And AI Tools Will Steady Market Position Amid Industry Headwinds
Analysts have modestly reduced their price targets for TWFG, with new estimates now ranging from $30 to $39. They cite ongoing headwinds in the property and casualty insurance sector, including slower commercial property pricing and market-wide performance trends.Narrative Update • Oct 09
Branch Expansion And AI Tools Will Broaden US Market Reach
Analysts have decreased their fair value estimate for TWFG from $34.50 to approximately $32.67, citing sector-wide headwinds in commercial property and casualty pricing along with tempered growth expectations, despite improving margins. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research reveals a cautious but nuanced view of TWFG, as analysts update their expectations in response to sector dynamics and company-specific trends.Narrative Update • Sep 05
Branch Expansion And AI Tools Will Broaden US Market Reach
Consensus analyst sentiment on TWFG has turned more cautious amid heightened competition, softer organic growth, and lower management guidance, partially offset by stronger-than-expected margin expansion, resulting in no change to the analyst price target at $34.50. Analyst Commentary Bearish analysts cite increased competition in the personal auto insurance market as a headwind impacting growth prospects for TWFG.Analysis Article • Aug 16
Results: TWFG, Inc. Beat Earnings Expectations And Analysts Now Have New Forecasts
NasdaqGS:TWFG 1 Year Share Price vs Fair Value Explore TWFG's Fair Values from the Community and select yours...New Narrative • Jul 20
Branch Network Expansion And Digital Transformation Will Open New Markets
Expanding branch network, technology investments, and digital transformation are driving market penetration, revenue growth, efficiency, and higher margins.Analysis Article • May 16
Earnings Beat: TWFG, Inc. Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Models
It's been a good week for TWFG, Inc. ( NASDAQ:TWFG ) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest...Seeking Alpha • Oct 28
TWFG, Inc.: A Significant Skin-In-The-Game Opportunity
Summary TWFG, Inc., a Texas-based insurance broker, supports independent agents with a turnkey solution, offering carrier relationships, technology, training, and branding. The U.S. P&C market is over $850 billion, with independent agents gaining market share from captive agents, especially in homeowners' insurance. Founded by Gordy Bunch, TWFG has scaled to over $1 billion in premiums, with a presence in 40+ states and 400+ branded agencies. TWFG's capital-light model, attractive 80/20 commission split, and opportunities for accretive M&A make it a compelling investment with significant growth potential. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaRevenue & Expenses Breakdown
Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
How TWFG makes and spends money. Based on latest reported earnings, on an LTM basis.
Earnings and Revenue History
| Date | Revenue | Earnings | G+A Expenses | R&D Expenses |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 26 | 295 | 9 | 175 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 26 | 268 | 8 | 163 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 25 | 249 | 8 | 156 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 25 | 230 | 7 | 150 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 25 | 219 | 6 | 146 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 25 | 211 | 4 | 142 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 24 | 204 | 3 | 135 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 24 | 191 | -20 | 130 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 24 | 186 | -13 | 129 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 24 | 178 | -6 | 127 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 23 | 172 | -1 | 128 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 22 | 154 | 3 | 115 | 0 |
Quality Earnings: TWFG has high quality earnings.
Growing Profit Margin: TWFG's current net profit margins (3%) are higher than last year (2.8%).
Free Cash Flow vs Earnings Analysis
Past Earnings Growth Analysis
Earnings Trend: TWFG's earnings have grown significantly by 61.8% per year over the past 5 years.
Accelerating Growth: TWFG's earnings growth over the past year (45.6%) is below its 5-year average (61.8% per year).
Earnings vs Industry: TWFG earnings growth over the past year (45.6%) exceeded the Insurance industry 27.4%.
Return on Equity
High ROE: TWFG's Return on Equity (19.4%) is considered low.
Return on Assets
Return on Capital Employed
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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/09/10 23:31 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/09/10 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/06/30 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
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| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.
Learn about the who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
TWFG, Inc. is covered by 12 analysts. 8 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Michael Zaremski | BMO Capital Markets Equity Research |
| null null | BMO Capital Markets Equity Research |
| Jamminder Bhullar | J.P. Morgan |