Investor Optimism Abounds Erie Indemnity Company (NASDAQ:ERIE) But Growth Is Lacking

When close to half the companies in the United States have price-to-earnings ratios (or "P/E's") below 16x, you may consider Erie Indemnity Company (NASDAQ:ERIE) as a stock to avoid entirely with its 39.5x P/E ratio. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly elevated P/E.

With its earnings growth in positive territory compared to the declining earnings of most other companies, Erie Indemnity has been doing quite well of late. It seems that many are expecting the company to continue defying the broader market adversity, which has increased investors’ willingness to pay up for the stock. If not, then existing shareholders might be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.

See our latest analysis for Erie Indemnity

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How Is Erie Indemnity's Growth Trending?

In order to justify its P/E ratio, Erie Indemnity would need to produce outstanding growth well in excess of the market.

If we review the last year of earnings growth, the company posted a terrific increase of 53%. The latest three year period has also seen an excellent 57% overall rise in EPS, aided by its short-term performance. So we can start by confirming that the company has done a great job of growing earnings over that time.

Looking ahead now, EPS is anticipated to slump, contracting by 1.4% during the coming year according to the lone analyst following the company. That's not great when the rest of the market is expected to grow by 12%.

With this information, we find it concerning that Erie Indemnity is trading at a P/E higher than the market. Apparently many investors in the company reject the analyst cohort's pessimism and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. There's a very good chance these shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the negative growth outlook.

The Final Word

We'd say the price-to-earnings ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.

We've established that Erie Indemnity currently trades on a much higher than expected P/E for a company whose earnings are forecast to decline. Right now we are increasingly uncomfortable with the high P/E as the predicted future earnings are highly unlikely to support such positive sentiment for long. This places shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.

The company's balance sheet is another key area for risk analysis. You can assess many of the main risks through our free balance sheet analysis for Erie Indemnity with six simple checks.

It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com