Is Estée Lauder (EL) Using AI Fragrance Tools to Quietly Redefine Its Brand Moat?

• In late 2025, The Estée Lauder Companies and Jo Malone London launched the Jo Malone London Scent Advisor, an AI-powered online consultation built on Google’s Gemini and Vertex AI to personalize fragrance recommendations for shoppers in the US and UK.
• The launch, alongside Estée Lauder’s expanded Profit Recovery and Growth Plan and fragrance-focused initiatives like the Paris Fragrance Atelier, highlights how the company is pairing cost restructuring with digital innovation to reposition its fragrance business.
• We’ll now examine how the AI-driven Jo Malone Scent Advisor shapes Estée Lauder’s investment narrative around digital innovation and fragrance expansion.

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Estée Lauder Companies Investment Narrative Recap

To own Estée Lauder today, you need to believe the turnaround story can convert heavy restructuring and digital spending into durable earnings, while travel retail and developed‑market demand gradually stabilize. The Jo Malone Scent Advisor supports the near term catalyst of AI‑enabled online growth, but does not materially change the biggest risk, which remains execution on cost cuts and profit recovery after sizeable restructuring charges and a period of weak profitability.

The most connected development here is Estée Lauder’s expanded Profit Recovery and Growth Plan, which now carries US$1,200 million to US$1,600 million of expected charges through fiscal 2027. Pairing that effort with AI tools like the Jo Malone Scent Advisor ties cost restructuring directly to higher value digital engagement, a combination many investors will watch closely as they weigh the potential benefits against elevated fixed costs and margin pressure.

Yet beneath the innovation headlines, investors should still pay close attention to the risk that heavy restructuring spend and high fixed costs could...

Read the full narrative on Estée Lauder Companies (it's free!)

Estée Lauder Companies' narrative projects $16.0 billion revenue and $1.4 billion earnings by 2028. This requires 3.9% yearly revenue growth and an earnings increase of about $2.5 billion from -$1.1 billion today.

Uncover how Estée Lauder Companies' forecasts yield a $101.87 fair value, in line with its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Nine Simply Wall St Community fair value estimates for Estée Lauder span roughly US$61 to US$118 per share, underlining how far apart individual views can be. Against that wide spread, the company’s heavy restructuring charges and ongoing profit recovery effort give you another lens to compare these community expectations and explore several alternative viewpoints on the path forward.

Explore 9 other fair value estimates on Estée Lauder Companies - why the stock might be worth 42% less than the current price!

Build Your Own Estée Lauder Companies Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Estée Lauder Companies research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Estée Lauder Companies research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Estée Lauder Companies' overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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