HCA Healthcare, Inc. (NYSE:HCA) Analysts Are Pretty Bullish On The Stock After Recent Results

It's been a pretty great week for HCA Healthcare, Inc. (NYSE:HCA) shareholders, with its shares surging 11% to US$315 in the week since its latest yearly results. HCA Healthcare reported US$65b in revenue, roughly in line with analyst forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) of US$18.97 beat expectations, being 4.2% higher than what the analysts expected. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

See our latest analysis for HCA Healthcare

After the latest results, the 21 analysts covering HCA Healthcare are now predicting revenues of US$68.7b in 2024. If met, this would reflect an okay 5.8% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to accumulate 4.8% to US$20.53. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$67.7b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$19.66 in 2024. So the consensus seems to have become somewhat more optimistic on HCA Healthcare's earnings potential following these results.

The analysts have been lifting their price targets on the back of the earnings upgrade, with the consensus price target rising 7.6% to US$317. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on HCA Healthcare, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$360 and the most bearish at US$250 per share. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the HCA Healthcare's past performance and to peers in the same industry. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of HCA Healthcare'shistorical trends, as the 5.8% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 is roughly in line with the 6.4% annual growth over the past five years. Juxtapose this against our data, which suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 6.4% per year. It's clear that while HCA Healthcare's revenue growth is expected to continue on its current trajectory, it's only expected to grow in line with the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards HCA Healthcare following these results. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on HCA Healthcare. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for HCA Healthcare going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You still need to take note of risks, for example - HCA Healthcare has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.