HCA Healthcare Valuation

Is HCA undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

6/6

Valuation Score 6/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of HCA when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: HCA ($327.22) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($647.76)

Significantly Below Fair Value: HCA is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for HCA?

Key metric: As HCA is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for HCA. This is calculated by dividing HCA's market cap by their current earnings.
What is HCA's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio14x
EarningsUS$5.93b
Market CapUS$82.88b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does HCA's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for HCA vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average19.1x
THC Tenet Healthcare
4.3x-39.2%US$13.6b
UHS Universal Health Services
13.2x8.5%US$13.5b
EHC Encompass Health
24x9.6%US$10.4b
ENSG Ensign Group
34.7x18.1%US$8.3b
HCA HCA Healthcare
14x5.8%US$82.9b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: HCA is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14x) compared to the peer average (19.1x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does HCA's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Healthcare Industry?

3 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
NEUE NeueHealth
1.5xn/aUS$41.68m
IDXG Interpace Biosciences
2.8xn/aUS$13.61m
FZMD Fuse Medical
1.5xn/aUS$5.79m
No more companies available in this PE range
HCA 14.0xIndustry Avg. 24.4xNo. of Companies11PE01632486480+
3 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: HCA is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14x) compared to the US Healthcare industry average (24.4x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is HCA's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

HCA PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio14x
Fair PE Ratio32.4x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: HCA is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (32.4x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst HCA forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$327.22
US$404.19
+23.5%
8.8%US$460.00US$316.00n/a23
Nov ’25US$357.19
US$407.10
+14.0%
7.7%US$460.00US$316.00n/a24
Oct ’25US$405.45
US$396.60
-2.2%
7.5%US$455.00US$316.00n/a24
Sep ’25US$395.59
US$389.58
-1.5%
6.5%US$438.00US$316.00n/a23
Aug ’25US$363.12
US$380.27
+4.7%
5.8%US$410.00US$316.00n/a23
Jul ’25US$315.12
US$353.07
+12.0%
7.7%US$397.00US$285.00n/a23
Jun ’25US$339.75
US$348.68
+2.6%
7.0%US$396.00US$285.00n/a23
May ’25US$309.44
US$343.58
+11.0%
6.8%US$378.00US$285.00n/a23
Apr ’25US$330.11
US$337.54
+2.3%
6.1%US$378.00US$285.00n/a23
Mar ’25US$311.98
US$330.47
+5.9%
7.9%US$371.00US$250.00n/a22
Feb ’25US$314.66
US$317.21
+0.8%
10.0%US$360.00US$250.00n/a20
Jan ’25US$270.68
US$287.87
+6.3%
8.2%US$338.00US$250.00n/a21
Dec ’24US$252.36
US$281.53
+11.6%
6.2%US$315.00US$250.00US$327.2221
Nov ’24US$225.36
US$284.77
+26.4%
6.0%US$315.00US$254.00US$357.1921
Oct ’24US$245.98
US$317.24
+29.0%
6.9%US$350.00US$260.00US$405.4521
Sep ’24US$280.81
US$317.95
+13.2%
6.7%US$350.00US$260.00US$395.5922
Aug ’24US$273.87
US$317.14
+15.8%
6.9%US$350.00US$260.00US$363.1222
Jul ’24US$303.48
US$314.64
+3.7%
6.9%US$350.00US$260.00US$315.1222
Jun ’24US$267.87
US$310.95
+16.1%
6.8%US$350.00US$260.00US$339.7522
May ’24US$284.01
US$307.00
+8.1%
7.6%US$350.00US$260.00US$309.4422
Apr ’24US$263.68
US$280.91
+6.5%
6.5%US$310.00US$239.00US$330.1122
Mar ’24US$244.30
US$280.91
+15.0%
6.5%US$310.00US$239.00US$311.9822
Feb ’24US$261.46
US$277.00
+5.9%
7.0%US$310.00US$235.00US$314.6622
Jan ’24US$239.96
US$248.10
+3.4%
8.4%US$286.00US$217.00US$270.6821
Dec ’23US$238.47
US$242.41
+1.7%
6.7%US$283.00US$217.00US$252.3622

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.


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