We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

HCA Healthcare Valuation

Is HCA undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

[object Object] Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for HCA?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

HCA key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.8x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA9.1x
PEG Ratio1.8x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does HCA's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for HCA vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyPEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average20.4x
UHS Universal Health Services
12.5x3.9%US$9.2b
ACHC Acadia Healthcare Company
28.2x12.2%US$8.0b
EHC Encompass Health
16.7x10.2%US$5.8b
ENSG Ensign Group
24.3x13.4%US$5.2b
HCA HCA Healthcare
12.6x7.2%US$67.6b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: HCA is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.6x) compared to the peer average (20.4x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does HCA's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Healthcare Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a14.4%
n/an/an/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: HCA is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.6x) compared to the US Healthcare industry average (20.8x)


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is HCA's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

HCA PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio12.6x
Fair PE Ratio31.2x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: HCA is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (31.2x).


Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of HCA when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: HCA ($239.03) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($491.95)

Significantly Below Fair Value: HCA is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst HCA forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$239.03
US$238.39
-0.3%
10.3%US$283.00US$150.00n/a23
Nov ’23US$221.13
US$236.26
+6.8%
10.2%US$283.00US$150.00n/a23
Oct ’23US$183.79
US$238.96
+30.0%
10.6%US$283.00US$150.00n/a23
Sep ’23US$199.45
US$236.59
+18.6%
11.9%US$283.00US$150.00n/a22
Aug ’23US$210.91
US$231.79
+9.9%
13.1%US$283.00US$150.00n/a24
Jul ’23US$175.06
US$242.92
+38.8%
12.6%US$306.00US$150.00n/a24
Jun ’23US$206.95
US$250.78
+21.2%
11.4%US$306.00US$150.00n/a23
May ’23US$214.55
US$256.45
+19.5%
12.5%US$306.00US$150.00n/a22
Apr ’23US$250.75
US$279.43
+11.4%
11.6%US$310.00US$150.00n/a23
Mar ’23US$252.42
US$278.86
+10.5%
12.0%US$310.00US$150.00n/a22
Feb ’23US$237.33
US$277.04
+16.7%
11.7%US$310.00US$150.00n/a23
Jan ’23US$256.92
US$280.22
+9.1%
11.8%US$320.00US$150.00n/a23
Dec ’22US$225.61
US$279.57
+23.9%
11.8%US$320.00US$150.00US$238.4723
Nov ’22US$250.99
US$279.57
+11.4%
11.8%US$320.00US$150.00US$221.1323
Oct ’22US$247.79
US$269.04
+8.6%
12.4%US$320.00US$150.00US$183.7923
Sep ’22US$252.66
US$263.95
+4.5%
11.7%US$290.00US$150.00US$199.4521
Aug ’22US$248.20
US$259.95
+4.7%
12.2%US$290.00US$150.00US$210.9121
Jul ’22US$211.83
US$221.30
+4.5%
11.1%US$260.00US$150.00US$175.0620
Jun ’22US$215.87
US$218.60
+1.3%
10.6%US$242.00US$150.00US$206.9520
May ’22US$201.06
US$216.65
+7.8%
10.8%US$242.00US$150.00US$214.5520
Apr ’22US$186.15
US$193.50
+3.9%
8.0%US$215.00US$150.00US$250.7520
Mar ’22US$175.46
US$192.60
+9.8%
7.6%US$213.00US$150.00US$252.4220
Feb ’22US$166.93
US$183.67
+10.0%
9.8%US$205.00US$144.00US$237.3321
Jan ’22US$164.46
US$162.91
-0.9%
9.4%US$194.00US$142.00US$256.9223
Dec ’21US$151.91
US$154.23
+1.5%
6.3%US$178.00US$135.00US$225.6122

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.


Discover undervalued companies