HCA Healthcare, Inc.

NYSE:HCA Stock Report

Market Cap: US$75.4b

HCA Healthcare Valuation

Is HCA undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

6/6

Valuation Score 6/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of HCA when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: HCA ($303.62) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($539.37)

Significantly Below Fair Value: HCA is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for HCA?

Key metric: As HCA is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for HCA. This is calculated by dividing HCA's market cap by their current earnings.
What is HCA's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio13x
EarningsUS$5.93b
Market CapUS$75.36b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does HCA's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for HCA vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average17.4x
THC Tenet Healthcare
3.9x-39.2%US$12.0b
UHS Universal Health Services
11.6x8.3%US$11.6b
EHC Encompass Health
22.1x9.6%US$9.5b
ENSG Ensign Group
31.9x18.1%US$7.7b
HCA HCA Healthcare
13x5.8%US$75.4b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: HCA is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13x) compared to the peer average (17.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does HCA's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Healthcare Industry?

5 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
THC Tenet Healthcare
3.9x-39.2%US$11.95b
NEUE NeueHealth
1.1xn/aUS$32.60m
IDXG Interpace Biosciences
2.6xn/aUS$11.71m
FZMD Fuse Medical
2.2xn/aUS$8.67m
HCA 13.0xIndustry Avg. 21.1xNo. of Companies10PE01632486480+
5 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: HCA is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13x) compared to the US Healthcare industry average (21.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is HCA's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

HCA PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio13x
Fair PE Ratio32x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: HCA is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (32x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst HCA forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$303.62
US$398.84
+31.4%
10.0%US$460.00US$316.00n/a23
Dec ’25US$327.22
US$404.19
+23.5%
8.8%US$460.00US$316.00n/a23
Nov ’25US$357.19
US$407.10
+14.0%
7.7%US$460.00US$316.00n/a24
Oct ’25US$405.45
US$396.60
-2.2%
7.5%US$455.00US$316.00n/a24
Sep ’25US$395.59
US$389.58
-1.5%
6.5%US$438.00US$316.00n/a23
Aug ’25US$363.12
US$380.27
+4.7%
5.8%US$410.00US$316.00n/a23
Jul ’25US$315.12
US$353.07
+12.0%
7.7%US$397.00US$285.00n/a23
Jun ’25US$339.75
US$348.68
+2.6%
7.0%US$396.00US$285.00n/a23
May ’25US$309.44
US$343.58
+11.0%
6.8%US$378.00US$285.00n/a23
Apr ’25US$330.11
US$337.54
+2.3%
6.1%US$378.00US$285.00n/a23
Mar ’25US$311.98
US$330.47
+5.9%
7.9%US$371.00US$250.00n/a22
Feb ’25US$314.66
US$317.21
+0.8%
10.0%US$360.00US$250.00n/a20
Jan ’25US$270.68
US$287.87
+6.3%
8.2%US$338.00US$250.00n/a21
Dec ’24US$252.36
US$281.53
+11.6%
6.2%US$315.00US$250.00US$327.2221
Nov ’24US$225.36
US$284.77
+26.4%
6.0%US$315.00US$254.00US$357.1921
Oct ’24US$245.98
US$317.24
+29.0%
6.9%US$350.00US$260.00US$405.4521
Sep ’24US$280.81
US$317.95
+13.2%
6.7%US$350.00US$260.00US$395.5922
Aug ’24US$273.87
US$317.14
+15.8%
6.9%US$350.00US$260.00US$363.1222
Jul ’24US$303.48
US$314.64
+3.7%
6.9%US$350.00US$260.00US$315.1222
Jun ’24US$267.87
US$310.95
+16.1%
6.8%US$350.00US$260.00US$339.7522
May ’24US$284.01
US$307.00
+8.1%
7.6%US$350.00US$260.00US$309.4422
Apr ’24US$263.68
US$280.91
+6.5%
6.5%US$310.00US$239.00US$330.1122
Mar ’24US$244.30
US$280.91
+15.0%
6.5%US$310.00US$239.00US$311.9822
Feb ’24US$261.46
US$277.00
+5.9%
7.0%US$310.00US$235.00US$314.6622
Jan ’24US$239.96
US$248.10
+3.4%
8.4%US$286.00US$217.00US$270.6821
Dec ’23US$238.47
US$242.41
+1.7%
6.7%US$283.00US$217.00US$252.3622

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/20 22:31
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/20 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

HCA Healthcare, Inc. is covered by 49 analysts. 21 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Jasper HellwegArgus Research Company
Hua HaBaird
Ishan MajumdarBaptista Research