HCA Healthcare, Inc. Just Beat EPS By 16%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

HCA Healthcare, Inc. (NYSE:HCA) investors will be delighted, with the company turning in some strong numbers with its latest results. HCA Healthcare beat earnings, with revenues hitting US$17b, ahead of expectations, and statutory earnings per share outperforming analyst reckonings by a solid 16%. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for HCA Healthcare

Following the latest results, HCA Healthcare's 22 analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$69.4b in 2024. This would be a credible 4.1% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory per share are forecast to be US$20.81, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$69.1b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$20.56 in 2024. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of US$344, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on HCA Healthcare, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$378 and the most bearish at US$285 per share. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. The period to the end of 2024 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 5.5% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 6.4% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry (in aggregate), which analyst estimates suggest will see revenues grow 6.7% annually. So it's pretty clear that HCA Healthcare is expected to grow slower than similar companies in the same industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that HCA Healthcare's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on HCA Healthcare. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for HCA Healthcare going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for HCA Healthcare you should know about.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.