Paragon 28, Inc. (NYSE:FNA) Full-Year Results Just Came Out: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For This Year

There's been a notable change in appetite for Paragon 28, Inc. (NYSE:FNA) shares in the week since its full-year report, with the stock down 12% to US$11.76. Revenues were in line with expectations, at US$216m, while statutory losses ballooned to US$0.58 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Check out our latest analysis for Paragon 28

Following the latest results, Paragon 28's seven analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$253.9m in 2024. This would be a meaningful 17% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 24% to US$0.44. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$256.1m and US$0.35 per share in losses. So it's pretty clear the analysts have mixed opinions on Paragon 28 even after this update; although they reconfirmed their revenue numbers, it came at the cost of a considerable increase to per-share losses.

The consensus price target held steady at US$18.00, seemingly implying that the higher forecast losses are not expected to have a long term impact on the company's valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Paragon 28, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$23.00 and the most bearish at US$15.00 per share. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Paragon 28 shareholders.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Paragon 28's past performance and to peers in the same industry. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of Paragon 28'shistorical trends, as the 17% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 is roughly in line with the 21% annual growth over the past three years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 7.8% annually. So it's pretty clear that Paragon 28 is forecast to grow substantially faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to note is the forecast of increased losses next year, suggesting all may not be well at Paragon 28. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$18.00, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Paragon 28 going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You still need to take note of risks, for example - Paragon 28 has 2 warning signs we think you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.