Silk Road Medical, Inc (NASDAQ:SILK) First-Quarter Results Just Came Out: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For This Year

Silk Road Medical, Inc (NASDAQ:SILK) just released its quarterly report and things are looking bullish. Revenues beat expectations coming in atUS$48m, ahead of estimates by 8.5%. Statutory losses were somewhat smaller thanthe analysts expected, coming in at US$0.36 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

View our latest analysis for Silk Road Medical

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Silk Road Medical's nine analysts is for revenues of US$197.4m in 2024. This reflects a reasonable 6.4% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Losses are expected to hold steady at around US$1.38. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$195.7m and losses of US$1.37 per share in 2024.

As a result there was no major change to the consensus price target of US$19.00, implying that the business is trading roughly in line with expectations despite ongoing losses. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Silk Road Medical, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$28.00 and the most bearish at US$8.00 per share. So we wouldn't be assigning too much credibility to analyst price targets in this case, because there are clearly some widely different views on what kind of performance this business can generate. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Silk Road Medical's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 8.6% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 27% p.a. growth over the last five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 8.1% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it looks like Silk Road Medical is forecast to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that the analysts made no changes to their forecasts for a loss next year. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$19.00, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Silk Road Medical analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You still need to take note of risks, for example - Silk Road Medical has 2 warning signs we think you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.