Calculating The Intrinsic Value Of LifeStance Health Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:LFST)

Key Insights

• LifeStance Health Group's estimated fair value is US$6.61 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
• Current share price of US$5.93 suggests LifeStance Health Group is potentially trading close to its fair value
• The US$8.79 analyst price target for LFST is 33% more than our estimate of fair value

In this article we are going to estimate the intrinsic value of LifeStance Health Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:LFST) by taking the forecast future cash flows of the company and discounting them back to today's value. We will use the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model on this occasion. Don't get put off by the jargon, the math behind it is actually quite straightforward.

Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.

See our latest analysis for LifeStance Health Group

The Calculation

We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033
Levered FCF ($, Millions)	US$10.6m	US$39.0m	US$57.0m	US$71.2m	US$84.0m	US$95.3m	US$104.8m	US$112.9m	US$119.8m	US$125.7m
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Analyst x3	Analyst x3	Analyst x1	Est @ 24.85%	Est @ 18.09%	Est @ 13.35%	Est @ 10.03%	Est @ 7.71%	Est @ 6.08%	Est @ 4.94%
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 6.0%	US$10.0	US$34.7	US$47.9	US$56.4	US$62.9	US$67.3	US$69.8	US$71.0	US$71.1	US$70.4

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$561m

After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.3%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 6.0%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₃ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$126m× (1 + 2.3%) ÷ (6.0%– 2.3%) = US$3.5b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= US$3.5b÷ ( 1 + 6.0%)¹⁰= US$2.0b

The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is US$2.5b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of US$5.9, the company appears about fair value at a 10% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.

The Assumptions

The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at LifeStance Health Group as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 6.0%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.800. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for LifeStance Health Group

Looking Ahead:

Although the valuation of a company is important, it is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. For LifeStance Health Group, we've put together three relevant items you should assess:

1. Risks: We feel that you should assess the 3 warning signs for LifeStance Health Group we've flagged before making an investment in the company.
2. Management:Have insiders been ramping up their shares to take advantage of the market's sentiment for LFST's future outlook? Check out our management and board analysis with insights on CEO compensation and governance factors.
3. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the NASDAQGS every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.