Guardant Health (GH): Assessing Valuation After FDA Nod and ESMO 2025 Data Reveal

Guardant Health (GH) just scored FDA approval for its Guardant360 CDx blood test as a companion diagnostic for a leading breast cancer treatment. The company also plans to unveil new clinical data at ESMO 2025, featuring advances in early detection, monitoring, and tumor profiling.

See our latest analysis for Guardant Health.

Guardant Health’s recent string of clinical milestones and the upcoming ESMO presentations have clearly captured investor attention. The company’s share price has climbed 120.96% year-to-date and total shareholder return has reached 236.85% over the past 12 months. This momentum suggests a significant shift in the market’s perception of Guardant’s growth trajectory and competitive positioning.

If these breakthroughs have you interested in what else is advancing in healthcare, you’ll want to check out See the full list for free.

Yet with shares at new highs and lofty recent gains, investors now face a familiar dilemma: is Guardant Health undervalued based on its future pipeline and clinical momentum, or has the market already factored in much of that growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 2.9% Overvalued

Guardant Health’s widely followed narrative sets a fair value slightly below its last close, with recent price gains leaving little room above consensus forecasts. The latest update pins its fair value at $68.23, which is just under the last traded price of $70.20. This signals that analyst optimism has already been priced in.

Rapid integration of AI-powered clinical analytics and multi-omic profiling into Guardant's "Smart Liquid Biopsy" platform is creating new clinical applications, enhancing product utility and differentiation versus peers. This is leading to higher average selling prices (ASPs), rising margins, and increased potential for broader payer reimbursement and improved net margins.

Read the complete narrative.

What’s really driving this valuation? The underlying story involves bold growth bets and transformative profit margin assumptions. Want to see which aggressive forecasts and financial levers form the backbone of this price target? The full narrative breaks it down and may surprise you.

Result: Fair Value of $68.23 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, ongoing high R&D expenses and fierce competition in liquid biopsy could challenge Guardant Health’s path to consistent profitability and rapid revenue growth.

Find out about the key risks to this Guardant Health narrative.

Another View: SWS DCF Model Sees Deep Undervaluation

While analysts find little upside at current prices, our DCF model draws a starkly different conclusion. It estimates Guardant Health’s intrinsic value at $195.52 per share, which makes the current price appear deeply undervalued. Why does this method offer such a high estimate compared to consensus?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Guardant Health for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Build Your Own Guardant Health Narrative

If you think differently or are keen to dig into the numbers yourself, crafting your own take can take less than three minutes. Do it your way

A great starting point for your Guardant Health research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

Looking for More High-Potential Investment Ideas?

Smart investors never settle for just one winner. Get ahead of the curve by checking other sectors surging with innovation and untapped opportunities.

• Boost your growth prospects by targeting undervalued companies. Seize your advantage with these 873 undervalued stocks based on cash flows before the market catches on.
• Tap into the world of AI breakthroughs and gain early access to game-changing advancements by selecting from these 24 AI penny stocks now.
• Capture consistent returns by picking shares with superior payouts. Unlock a curated list of names with these 17 dividend stocks with yields > 3% today.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com