Analysts Have Been Trimming Their Fulgent Genetics, Inc. (NASDAQ:FLGT) Price Target After Its Latest Report

Investors in Fulgent Genetics, Inc. (NASDAQ:FLGT) had a good week, as its shares rose 4.4% to close at US$21.49 following the release of its first-quarter results. It looks like the results were pretty good overall. While revenues of US$64m were in line with analyst predictions, statutory losses were much smaller than expected, with Fulgent Genetics losing US$0.45 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

See our latest analysis for Fulgent Genetics

After the latest results, the consensus from Fulgent Genetics' three analysts is for revenues of US$280.2m in 2024, which would reflect a discernible 2.6% decline in revenue compared to the last year of performance. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 52% to US$2.67. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$279.4m and US$2.31 per share in losses. While this year's revenue estimates held steady, there was also a considerable increase in loss per share expectations, suggesting the consensus has a bit of a mixed view on the stock.

With the increase in forecast losses for next year, it's perhaps no surprise to see that the average price target dipped 14% to US$26.67, with the analysts signalling that growing losses would be a definite concern. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Fulgent Genetics analyst has a price target of US$30.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$25.00. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Fulgent Genetics is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 3.4% by the end of 2024. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 22% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 6.7% per year. It's pretty clear that Fulgent Genetics' revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to note is the forecast of increased losses next year, suggesting all may not be well at Fulgent Genetics. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Fulgent Genetics' revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Fulgent Genetics' future valuation.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Fulgent Genetics going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

We also provide an overview of the Fulgent Genetics Board and CEO remuneration and length of tenure at the company, and whether insiders have been buying the stock, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.