The Ensign Group, Inc. Just Beat Earnings Expectations: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Investors in The Ensign Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:ENSG) had a good week, as its shares rose 3.0% to close at US$153 following the release of its third-quarter results. Ensign Group reported US$1.1b in revenue, roughly in line with analyst forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.34 beat expectations, being 8.1% higher than what the analysts expected. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

See our latest analysis for Ensign Group

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Ensign Group's five analysts is for revenues of US$4.72b in 2025. This reflects a notable 15% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to jump 31% to US$5.52. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$4.63b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$5.51 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

With the analysts reconfirming their revenue and earnings forecasts, it's surprising to see that the price target rose 6.3% to US$165. It looks as though they previously had some doubts over whether the business would live up to their expectations. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Ensign Group, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$168 and the most bearish at US$160 per share. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting Ensign Group is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Ensign Group's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 12% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 15% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 6.7% annually. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Ensign Group is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Ensign Group. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Ensign Group going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Another thing to consider is whether management and directors have been buying or selling stock recently. We provide an overview of all open market stock trades for the last twelve months on our platform, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.