US$2.60: That's What Analysts Think CareMax, Inc. (NASDAQ:CMAX) Is Worth After Its Latest Results

CareMax, Inc. (NASDAQ:CMAX) missed earnings with its latest quarterly results, disappointing overly-optimistic forecasters. It was a pretty negative result overall, with revenues of US$199m missing analyst predictions by 9.4%. Worse, the business reported a statutory loss of US$44.79 per share, much larger than the analysts had forecast prior to the result. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for CareMax

Following last week's earnings report, CareMax's three analysts are forecasting 2024 revenues to be US$772.4m, approximately in line with the last 12 months. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 90% to US$20.83. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$856.4m and losses of US$27.80 per share in 2024. Although the revenue estimates have fallen somewhat, CareMax'sfuture looks a little different to the past, with a very promising decrease in the loss per share forecasts in particular.

The analysts have cut their price target 45% to US$2.60per share, suggesting that the declining revenue was a more crucial indicator than the forecast reduction in losses. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on CareMax, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$3.00 and the most bearish at US$2.20 per share. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 3.1% by the end of 2024. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 41% over the last three years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 6.8% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that CareMax's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that the analysts made no changes to their forecasts for a loss next year. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. Still, earnings are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of CareMax's future valuation.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple CareMax analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 6 warning signs for CareMax (3 are a bit concerning!) that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.