Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:AVAH) First-Quarter Results: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For This Year

Investors in Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:AVAH) had a good week, as its shares rose 7.3% to close at US$2.50 following the release of its quarterly results. Revenue hit US$491m in line with forecasts, although the company reported a statutory loss per share of US$0.06 that was somewhat smaller than the analysts expected. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Aveanna Healthcare Holdings

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Aveanna Healthcare Holdings' eight analysts is for revenues of US$1.98b in 2024. This reflects a credible 3.0% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 63% to US$0.22. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$1.97b and losses of US$0.11 per share in 2024. So it's pretty clear the analysts have mixed opinions on Aveanna Healthcare Holdings even after this update; although they reconfirmed their revenue numbers, it came at the cost of a considerable increase to per-share losses.

As a result, there was no major change to the consensus price target of US$2.62, with the analysts implicitly confirming that the business looks to be performing in line with expectations, despite higher forecast losses. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on Aveanna Healthcare Holdings, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$3.00 and the most bearish at US$1.60 per share. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Aveanna Healthcare Holdings' past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Aveanna Healthcare Holdings' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 4.1% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 6.1% over the past three years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 6.6% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Aveanna Healthcare Holdings.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts increased their loss per share estimates for next year. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$2.62, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Aveanna Healthcare Holdings going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 3 warning signs for Aveanna Healthcare Holdings you should be aware of, and 1 of them can't be ignored.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.