Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Future Growth
Future criteria checks 1/6
Aveanna Healthcare Holdings's earnings are forecast to decline at 17.2% per annum while its annual revenue is expected to grow at 5.5% per year. EPS is expected to decline by 19% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 36.3% in 3 years.
Key information
-17.2%
Earnings growth rate
-19.01%
EPS growth rate
| Healthcare earnings growth | 19.2% |
| Revenue growth rate | 5.5% |
| Future return on equity | 36.28% |
| Analyst coverage | Good |
| Last updated | 12 Jun 2026 |
Recent future growth updates
Recent updates
Narrative Update • Jun 02
AVAH: Home Care Momentum And Preferred Payor Mix Will Support Margin Resilience
Aveanna Healthcare Holdings’ updated analyst price target has shifted to $8.00 from $7.00. Analysts point to Q1 beat and raise momentum, solid demand in Private Duty Services, improving margins, and an unimpacted outlook under the new home health moratorium as key supports for the higher fair value.Analysis Article • May 22
Aveanna Healthcare Holdings' (NASDAQ:AVAH) Promising Earnings May Rest On Soft Foundations
Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc. ( NASDAQ:AVAH ) just reported some strong earnings, and the market reacted accordingly...Seeking Alpha • May 20
Aveanna Healthcare: Q1 Results Confirm My Reasons For Optimism
Summary Aveanna Healthcare Holdings reported strong Q1 2026 results, with EPS and revenue significantly beating expectations and shares rising 14% post-earnings. Q1 2026 was the ninth straight quarter in which AVAH has beaten analysts' earnings expectations and the 14th in which it has topped revenue estimates. Key risks include high debt levels, negative free cash flow in Q1 2026, and insider selling, but AVAH's forward PE of 11.4 and PEG ratio of 0.77 support continued upside. I maintain a Buy rating on AVAH, citing improved profitability, ongoing expansion in home health and pediatric care, and raised FY 2026 guidance. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Narrative Update • May 18
AVAH: Beat And Raise Execution May Support Future Repricing Potential
Aveanna Healthcare Holdings' analyst price target has shifted modestly to $9.95 per share, with analysts pointing to recent beat and raise quarters, stronger profitability metrics, and a reduced assumed future P/E multiple, while also weighing fresh target cuts from several firms. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Aveanna Healthcare Holdings shows a split between bullish analysts highlighting execution on recent quarters and more cautious analysts trimming price targets after reassessing valuation and risk.
Narrative Update • May 04
AVAH: Future Upside Will Rely On Rebased Margins And Higher P/E Multiple
Analysts have lowered their average price targets on Aveanna Healthcare Holdings by $1 to $2, citing updated assumptions for discount rates, revenue growth, profit margins and future P/E multiples. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Aveanna Healthcare Holdings shows a mix of reduced price targets and a fresh upgrade, with bullish analysts highlighting specific areas where they see potential upside despite more conservative assumptions.Narrative Update • Apr 20
AVAH: Future EBITDA Expansion Will Be Driven By Rebased Margins And Higher P/E Multiple
Analysts have nudged their blended price target for Aveanna Healthcare Holdings slightly lower to about $12.94, trimming it by roughly $0.06 as they factor in more moderate revenue and margin assumptions, along with a higher expected future P/E multiple. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research around Aveanna Healthcare Holdings has centered on recalibrated price targets, with several firms adjusting their models to reflect updated revenue and margin expectations while also applying a higher expected P/E multiple.Narrative Update • Apr 05
AVAH: Cautious Earnings Outlook Will Test Reimbursement Assumptions And Margin Resilience
Aveanna Healthcare Holdings' analyst price target has been reduced by $3, with analysts generally tying the shift to lower fair value estimates, slightly higher discount rates, and more cautious assumptions for revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E multiples. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Aveanna Healthcare Holdings reflects a more cautious stance, with several bearish analysts cutting price targets even as one firm issued an upgrade.Narrative Update • Mar 22
AVAH: Refined Discount Rate And Earnings Visibility May Support Repricing Potential
Aveanna Healthcare Holdings' analyst price target has been adjusted from $11.00 to $10.25, as analysts factor in more conservative assumptions on growth and margins, while also reflecting recent upgrades and mixed target changes across several firms. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Aveanna Healthcare Holdings reflects a mix of optimism and caution, with several firms adjusting price targets in both directions and at least one upgrade alongside multiple target reductions.Narrative Update • Mar 08
AVAH: Raised Price Objective Will Reshape Earnings Quality Through Medicaid Reimbursement And Cost Discipline
Narrative Update Overview The analyst price target for Aveanna Healthcare Holdings has been raised by a few dollars into the $10 range, as analysts factor in updated assumptions for discount rates, revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E multiples following recent research from several major firms. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Aveanna Healthcare Holdings clusters around modest price target lifts into the $10 range.Narrative Update • Feb 21
AVAH: Refined Discount Rate Assumptions Will Support Future Earnings Reassessment
Aveanna Healthcare Holdings' analyst price target has been nudged higher to $11, with analysts pointing to modest tweaks in the discount rate and P/E assumptions, supported by new target increases from Barclays, RBC Capital, and UBS. Analyst Commentary Recent research updates cluster around a higher price target near $11, with analysts fine tuning their discount rate and P/E assumptions rather than making wholesale changes to their views on Aveanna Healthcare Holdings.Narrative Update • Feb 07
AVAH: Reimbursement Tailwinds And Payer Mix Shifts Will Support Future Earnings
Narrative update Aveanna Healthcare Holdings' analyst price target has been nudged higher, with the fair value estimate moving from $10.65 to $11.00 as analysts factor in recent target increases at Barclays, RBC Capital, UBS, as well as supportive views around reimbursement trends, payer mix shifts, cost discipline, and potential M&A. Analyst Commentary Recent research updates cluster around a common theme: the current valuation is being reset slightly higher as analysts weigh recent state reimbursement moves, payer mix changes, and the company’s cost discipline against more tempered expectations for future Medicaid rate actions.Narrative Update • Jan 24
AVAH: Higher Medicaid Reimbursement And Cost Discipline Will Reshape Earnings Quality
Narrative Update Overview Aveanna Healthcare Holdings' fair value estimate has moved from US$6.00 to US$10.00. Analysts attribute this change to updated views on revenue growth, profit margins, and a higher future P/E multiple following recent price target hikes from several firms.Narrative Update • Jan 10
AVAH: Medicaid Reimbursement Gains Will Support Future Earnings And Capital Deployment
Analysts have raised their price target on Aveanna Healthcare Holdings to $11 from $10, citing recent strong Q2 and Q3 results, state reimbursement gains, preferred payer expansion, cost discipline, and potential M&A activity as key factors supporting the revised outlook. Analyst Commentary Recent research coverage on Aveanna Healthcare Holdings highlights both constructive and cautious views around the company’s execution, growth drivers, and valuation support.Narrative Update • Dec 26
AVAH: Medicaid Reimbursement Gains Will Drive Long-Term Earnings Upside
Aveanna Healthcare Holdings' analyst price target has been nudged higher to $10.65 from $10.55, as analysts factor in stronger long term EBITDA prospects supported by recent Medicaid reimbursement gains, payer mix improvements, and ongoing cost discipline. Analyst Commentary Street research remains broadly constructive on Aveanna, with recent coverage initiations and target hikes underscoring confidence in the company’s ability to translate operational gains into durable earnings growth.Narrative Update • Dec 12
AVAH Future EBITDA Expansion Will Be Driven By Payer Mix Improvements
Aveanna Healthcare Holdings' analyst price target has been raised from $9.00 to $13.00 as analysts cite stronger expected revenue growth, improving profit margins, sustained EBITDA expansion above 10 percent, and balance sheet deleverage supported by state reimbursement, payer mix upgrades, disciplined cost controls, and potential M&A. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts highlight that Aveanna is executing well against its strategic priorities, citing multiple quarters of stronger than expected results and a clearer path to sustained double digit EBITDA growth.Narrative Update • Nov 27
AVAH: Share Liquidity Improvements Will Support Long-Term Performance Upside
Aveanna Healthcare Holdings' analyst price target has increased slightly from $10.17 to $10.55. Analysts attribute the updated outlook to ongoing improvements in reimbursement rates, operational discipline, and strong quarterly results.Analysis Article • Nov 17
Investors Shouldn't Be Too Comfortable With Aveanna Healthcare Holdings' (NASDAQ:AVAH) Earnings
Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc. ( NASDAQ:AVAH ) announced strong profits, but the stock was stagnant. Our analysis...Narrative Update • Nov 13
AVAH: Ongoing Payer Expansion Will Drive Improved Financial Trajectory
Aveanna Healthcare Holdings' analyst price target has been raised from $9.61 to $10.17. Analysts point to improved earnings visibility, strong quarterly results, and cost discipline as factors supporting higher long-term growth expectations.Narrative Update • Oct 30
Improved Earnings Visibility and Liquidity Changes Will Shape Capacity Expansion
Aveanna Healthcare Holdings' analyst price target rose from approximately $9.22 to $9.61 per share. Analysts cited robust quarterly results, greater earnings visibility, and alleviated regulatory and liquidity concerns as key drivers for the upward revision.Narrative Update • Oct 15
Home Healthcare Demand Will Spur Capacity Expansion
Aveanna Healthcare Holdings saw its analyst price target rise significantly, with the average fair value estimate increasing from $8.81 to $9.22. Analysts cite improved leverage visibility, better interest rate risk understanding, and strong recent performance as key factors in their upward revisions.Narrative Update • Sep 28
Home Healthcare Demand Will Spur Capacity Expansion
Aveanna Healthcare Holdings’ consensus price target has been raised from $8.06 to $8.81, reflecting analysts’ increased confidence driven by improved leverage visibility, regulatory resolution, operational outperformance, and upward earnings revisions. Analyst Commentary Improved visibility into the company's leverage trajectory and positive impacts from interest rate swaps/caps.Narrative Update • Sep 13
Home Healthcare Demand Will Spur Capacity Expansion
Analysts have raised their outlook on Aveanna Healthcare Holdings due to greater confidence in leverage normalization, improved earnings visibility, and a stronger competitive position within the Medicaid sector, resulting in a higher consensus price target from $7.56 to $8.06. Analyst Commentary Improved leverage trajectory with greater visibility, supported by better-understood impacts from interest rate swaps and caps.Narrative Update • Aug 23
Home Healthcare Demand Will Spur Capacity Expansion
Aveanna Healthcare Holdings’ consensus price target has been revised upward to $7.56, reflecting analysts’ increased confidence in its leverage improvement, earnings momentum, and robust Medicaid positioning. Analyst Commentary Improved visibility on the company’s leverage trajectory, with clearer impacts from interest rate swaps and caps.Narrative Update • Aug 08
Home Healthcare Demand Will Spur Capacity Expansion
The consensus analyst price target for Aveanna Healthcare Holdings has increased from $5.75 to $6.07, reflecting improved revenue growth expectations and an uptick in net profit margins. What's in the News Aveanna Healthcare Holdings raised its full year 2025 revenue guidance to over $2.3 billion, up from more than $2.15 billion.Analysis Article • Aug 08
Aveanna Healthcare Holdings (NASDAQ:AVAH) Is Looking To Continue Growing Its Returns On Capital
NasdaqGS:AVAH 1 Year Share Price vs Fair Value Explore Aveanna Healthcare Holdings's Fair Values from the Community and...New Narrative • May 28
Home Based Care And Policy Advancements Will Secure Future Stability
Strategic acquisitions, payer partnerships, and focus on value-based care are expected to boost patient volumes, market share, and revenue predictability.Analysis Article • Apr 07
Aveanna Healthcare Holdings (NASDAQ:AVAH) Is Doing The Right Things To Multiply Its Share Price
If we want to find a potential multi-bagger, often there are underlying trends that can provide clues. Firstly, we'd...Analysis Article • Feb 26
Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc.'s (NASDAQ:AVAH) Business And Shares Still Trailing The Industry
Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc.'s ( NASDAQ:AVAH ) price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.4x may look like a pretty...Analysis Article • Dec 14
We Like These Underlying Return On Capital Trends At Aveanna Healthcare Holdings (NASDAQ:AVAH)
If you're not sure where to start when looking for the next multi-bagger, there are a few key trends you should keep an...Analysis Article • Nov 08
Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc.'s (NASDAQ:AVAH) Price Is Right But Growth Is Lacking After Shares Rocket 25%
Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc. ( NASDAQ:AVAH ) shares have had a really impressive month, gaining 25% after a shaky...Analysis Article • Sep 01
Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc.'s (NASDAQ:AVAH) Shares Bounce 45% But Its Business Still Trails The Industry
Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc. ( NASDAQ:AVAH ) shares have continued their recent momentum with a 45% gain in the...Analysis Article • Aug 11
Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc. Beat Analyst Profit Forecasts, And Analysts Have New Estimates
The investors in Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc. 's ( NASDAQ:AVAH ) will be rubbing their hands together with glee...Analysis Article • Jul 18
Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:AVAH) Shares Fly 35% But Investors Aren't Buying For Growth
Despite an already strong run, Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc. ( NASDAQ:AVAH ) shares have been powering on, with a...Analysis Article • May 12
Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:AVAH) First-Quarter Results: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For This Year
Investors in Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc. ( NASDAQ:AVAH ) had a good week, as its shares rose 7.3% to close at...Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts
| Date | Revenue | Earnings | Free Cash Flow | Cash from Op | Avg. No. Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2028 | 2,930 | 172 | 151 | N/A | 3 |
| 12/31/2027 | 2,782 | 158 | 158 | 173 | 10 |
| 12/31/2026 | 2,633 | 147 | 135 | 149 | 8 |
| 4/4/2026 | 2,522 | 261 | 129 | 139 | N/A |
| 1/3/2026 | 2,433 | 225 | 118 | 126 | N/A |
| 9/27/2025 | 2,291 | 75 | 83 | 90 | N/A |
| 6/28/2025 | 2,178 | 19 | 79 | 86 | N/A |
| 3/29/2025 | 2,093 | 5 | 29 | 36 | N/A |
| 12/28/2024 | 2,025 | -11 | 26 | 33 | N/A |
| 9/28/2024 | 1,983 | -66 | 10 | 16 | N/A |
| 6/29/2024 | 1,952 | -125 | 10 | 16 | N/A |
| 3/30/2024 | 1,919 | -114 | -2 | 3 | N/A |
| 12/30/2023 | 1,895 | -135 | 14 | 23 | N/A |
| 9/30/2023 | 1,868 | -347 | -25 | -15 | N/A |
| 7/1/2023 | 1,833 | -220 | -34 | -22 | N/A |
| 4/1/2023 | 1,804 | -719 | -44 | -31 | N/A |
| 12/31/2022 | 1,788 | -662 | -60 | -48 | N/A |
| 10/1/2022 | 1,751 | -550 | -56 | -42 | N/A |
| 7/2/2022 | 1,719 | -573 | -43 | -27 | N/A |
| 4/2/2022 | 1,712 | -98 | -5 | 12 | N/A |
| 1/1/2022 | 1,679 | -117 | -27 | -11 | N/A |
| 10/2/2021 | 1,687 | -1 | 7 | 21 | N/A |
| 7/3/2021 | 1,642 | -10 | 16 | 26 | N/A |
| 4/3/2021 | 1,557 | -89 | 28 | 40 | N/A |
| 1/2/2021 | 1,495 | -57 | 101 | 117 | N/A |
| 12/28/2019 | 1,384 | -77 | N/A | -9 | N/A |
| 12/29/2018 | 1,254 | -47 | N/A | 22 | N/A |
Analyst Future Growth Forecasts
Earnings vs Savings Rate: AVAH's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-17.2% per year).
Earnings vs Market: AVAH's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-17.2% per year).
High Growth Earnings: AVAH's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years.
Revenue vs Market: AVAH's revenue (5.5% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (12.5% per year).
High Growth Revenue: AVAH's revenue (5.5% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.
Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts
Future Return on Equity
Future ROE: AVAH's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time (36.3%)
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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/06/12 05:05 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/06/12 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/04/04 |
| Annual Earnings | 2026/01/03 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
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| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.
Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc. is covered by 14 analysts. 10 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Steven Valiquette | Barclays |
| Sarah James | Barclays |
| Andrew Mok | Barclays |