A Look at Aveanna Healthcare Holdings (AVAH) Valuation After Its Strong Recent Share Price Run

Aveanna Healthcare Holdings (AVAH) has quietly turned into a strong performer, with the stock up about 64 % over the past year and more than doubling year to date, catching many investors off guard.

See our latest analysis for Aveanna Healthcare Holdings.

The latest leg higher has been driven less by headlines and more by a reassessment of Aveanna’s prospects, with a strong multi year total shareholder return suggesting momentum is still building despite a recent cooling in the short term share price.

If Aveanna’s run has you rethinking your healthcare exposure, it could be a good moment to explore other potential leaders across healthcare stocks and see what else fits your strategy.

With earnings trending higher and the share price already sprinting ahead, investors now face a tougher question: is Aveanna still trading below its true potential, or has the market already priced in the next leg of growth?

Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 13.6% Undervalued

With Aveanna closing at $9.11 versus a narrative fair value of $10.55, the story centers on whether earnings can catch up to expectations.

Analysts expect earnings to reach $156.7 million (and earnings per share of $0.52) by about September 2028, up from $18.6 million today. In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 15.1x on those 2028 earnings, down from 93.9x today.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious how a home care stock justifies a richer valuation without leaning on eye popping revenue growth? The secret lies in a sharp profit reset and a surprisingly moderate future earnings multiple. Want to see the specific profit ramp and margin targets that drive that fair value math?

Result: Fair Value of $10.55 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, persistent wage inflation and tighter Medicaid reimbursement could quickly squeeze margins, testing whether Aveanna’s earnings trajectory really supports that richer valuation.

Find out about the key risks to this Aveanna Healthcare Holdings narrative.

Another View: Market Ratios Send a Different Signal

While the narrative fair value points to upside, the price earnings lens is less generous. Aveanna trades on 25.2 times earnings, richer than the US healthcare average of 22.4 times, but still below its 36.9 times fair ratio. This suggests there may be room to rerate if execution holds. Or is the bar now set too high?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Build Your Own Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Narrative

If you see the story differently or prefer running your own numbers, you can build a custom view in minutes with Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Aveanna Healthcare Holdings research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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