AdaptHealth Corp. Just Missed EPS By 31%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Investors in AdaptHealth Corp. (NASDAQ:AHCO) had a good week, as its shares rose 3.5% to close at US$9.28 following the release of its second-quarter results. It looks like a pretty bad result, all things considered. Although revenues of US$800m were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings fell badly short, missing estimates by 31% to hit US$0.10 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, AdaptHealth's eight analysts currently expect revenues in 2025 to be US$3.23b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to surge 21% to US$0.67. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$3.24b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.86 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become more bearish following the latest results. While there were no changes to revenue forecasts, there was a pretty serious reduction to EPS estimates.

Check out our latest analysis for AdaptHealth

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at US$13.13, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on AdaptHealth, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$16.00 and the most bearish at US$10.50 per share. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 0.7% by the end of 2025. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 20% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 5.9% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - AdaptHealth is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that AdaptHealth's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for AdaptHealth going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 1 warning sign for AdaptHealth that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.