AdaptHealth Corp. Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now

AdaptHealth Corp. (NASDAQ:AHCO) last week reported its latest quarterly results, which makes it a good time for investors to dive in and see if the business is performing in line with expectations. Things were not great overall, with a surprise (statutory) loss of US$0.05 per share on revenues of US$778m, even though the analysts had been expecting a profit. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

We've discovered 2 warning signs about AdaptHealth. View them for free.

Taking into account the latest results, AdaptHealth's eight analysts currently expect revenues in 2025 to be US$3.26b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to shoot up 40% to US$0.83. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$3.27b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.87 in 2025. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a small dip in their earnings per share forecasts.

See our latest analysis for AdaptHealth

The consensus price target held steady at US$12.56, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic AdaptHealth analyst has a price target of US$16.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$9.00. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that AdaptHealth's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 0.4% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 23% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 7.0% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that AdaptHealth is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for AdaptHealth. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that AdaptHealth's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$12.56, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for AdaptHealth going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 2 warning signs for AdaptHealth you should be aware of, and 1 of them is concerning.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.