Earnings Update: Ingredion Incorporated (NYSE:INGR) Just Reported Its Full-Year Results And Analysts Are Updating Their Forecasts

Ingredion Incorporated (NYSE:INGR) last week reported its latest annual results, which makes it a good time for investors to dive in and see if the business is performing in line with expectations. The result was positive overall - although revenues of US$8.2b were in line with what the analysts predicted, Ingredion surprised by delivering a statutory profit of US$9.60 per share, modestly greater than expected. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Ingredion after the latest results.

View our latest analysis for Ingredion

Following last week's earnings report, Ingredion's six analysts are forecasting 2024 revenues to be US$8.09b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory per-share earnings are expected to be US$9.91, roughly flat on the last 12 months. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$8.39b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$9.79 in 2024. The consensus seems maybe a little more pessimistic, trimming their revenue forecasts after the latest results even though there was no change to its EPS estimates.

The consensus has reconfirmed its price target of US$124, showing that the analysts don't expect weaker revenue expectations next year to have a material impact on Ingredion's market value. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Ingredion analyst has a price target of US$136 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$115. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 0.8% annualised decline to the end of 2024. That is a notable change from historical growth of 6.9% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 2.5% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that Ingredion's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. Still, earnings are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. The consensus price target held steady at US$124, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Ingredion. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Ingredion analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 1 warning sign for Ingredion you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.