Here's Why Flowers Foods (NYSE:FLO) Can Manage Its Debt Responsibly

Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. We note that Flowers Foods, Inc. (NYSE:FLO) does have debt on its balance sheet. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?

When Is Debt A Problem?

Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.

View our latest analysis for Flowers Foods

How Much Debt Does Flowers Foods Carry?

The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at July 2023 Flowers Foods had debt of US$1.09b, up from US$905.3m in one year. Net debt is about the same, since the it doesn't have much cash.

A Look At Flowers Foods' Liabilities

Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Flowers Foods had liabilities of US$555.5m due within 12 months and liabilities of US$1.48b due beyond that. Offsetting this, it had US$11.7m in cash and US$459.8m in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities total US$1.56b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.

While this might seem like a lot, it is not so bad since Flowers Foods has a market capitalization of US$5.22b, and so it could probably strengthen its balance sheet by raising capital if it needed to. But it's clear that we should definitely closely examine whether it can manage its debt without dilution.

We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.

We'd say that Flowers Foods's moderate net debt to EBITDA ratio ( being 2.2), indicates prudence when it comes to debt. And its commanding EBIT of 37.0 times its interest expense, implies the debt load is as light as a peacock feather. Flowers Foods grew its EBIT by 2.0% in the last year. Whilst that hardly knocks our socks off it is a positive when it comes to debt. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Flowers Foods can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. During the last three years, Flowers Foods produced sturdy free cash flow equating to 53% of its EBIT, about what we'd expect. This free cash flow puts the company in a good position to pay down debt, when appropriate.

Our View

On our analysis Flowers Foods's interest cover should signal that it won't have too much trouble with its debt. But the other factors we noted above weren't so encouraging. For example, its net debt to EBITDA makes us a little nervous about its debt. When we consider all the elements mentioned above, it seems to us that Flowers Foods is managing its debt quite well. But a word of caution: we think debt levels are high enough to justify ongoing monitoring. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. To that end, you should be aware of the 3 warning signs we've spotted with Flowers Foods .

If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.