Oatly Group Future Growth
Future criteria checks 0/6
Oatly Group is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 41.4% and 4.3% per annum respectively while EPS is expected to grow by 42% per annum.
Key information
41.4%
Earnings growth rate
42.04%
EPS growth rate
| Food earnings growth | 21.3% |
| Revenue growth rate | 4.3% |
| Future return on equity | n/a |
| Analyst coverage | Low |
| Last updated | 27 May 2026 |
Recent future growth updates
Recent updates
Narrative Update • May 17
OTLY: Capacity Expansion And New Lineup Are Expected To Drive Repricing Potential
Narrative Update: Oatly Group Analyst Price Target Shift Analysts have trimmed their price target on Oatly Group to $12.50 from $14.00, reflecting updated assumptions around growth, profitability and valuation following recent research model revisions. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Oatly Group has centered on lower price targets following updated models around the company, particularly after the Q4 report.Narrative Update • Apr 25
OTLY: Capacity Expansion And New Markets Will Support Future Repricing Potential
Analysts have trimmed their price targets for Oatly Group by $1 to about $14.50, citing updated models following the Q4 report and modest adjustments to the discount rate, revenue growth assumptions, profit margin and future P/E expectations. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research reflects a more cautious tone around Oatly Group, with price targets trimmed following the Q4 report and updates to valuation models.Narrative Update • Apr 10
OTLY: Capacity Expansion Plan Will Support Future Repricing Potential
Analysts have trimmed their price target on Oatly Group to about $14.50, reflecting updated models after recent quarterly results, while still pointing to modest expectations for revenue growth, profit margins and future P/E multiples. Analyst Commentary Recent research updates frame the new US$14.50 price target as part of a more cautious stance on Oatly Group, with bearish analysts revisiting their assumptions after the latest Q4 report.Narrative Update • Mar 26
OTLY: Capacity Expansion And Higher Margins Will Support Future Bullish Repricing
Oatly Group's average analyst price target has shifted slightly lower to $14.50, as analysts factor updated post Q4 modeling into a modestly higher discount rate, a small adjustment to revenue growth and profit margin assumptions, and a lower future P/E of about 9.6x versus 10.5x previously. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research reflects a more cautious tone around Oatly Group, centered on updated Q4 assumptions and how they feed into valuation.Narrative Update • Mar 10
OTLY: Capacity Expansion And Margin Execution Will Ultimately Drive Bullish Repricing
Analysts have trimmed their average price target on Oatly Group to $14.50 from $16, citing refreshed models after the Q4 report and updated assumptions around growth, profitability and future P/E multiples. Analyst Commentary Bearish analysts are signaling a more cautious stance on Oatly Group by resetting their expectations after the Q4 report.Narrative Update • Feb 24
OTLY: Scanner Weakness And Discounting Will Ultimately Set Up Stronger Margin Recovery
Analysts have nudged their average price target on Oatly Group slightly lower to $14.50 from $16.00, citing updated models after the Q4 report and softer retail volumes with heavier discounting in recent scanner data. Analyst Commentary Recent research updates show a cautious tone around Oatly Group, with several bearish analysts trimming their price targets after reviewing the Q4 report and the latest scanner data.Seeking Alpha • Feb 17
Oatly Could Become Much More Valuable If It Sells Its China Segment
Summary Oatly AB is a potential turnaround story, now focused on sustainable growth and cost discipline rather than aggressive expansion. OTLY is fairly valued at current levels based on 2026 guidance, with a hold rating justified by modest revenue growth and ongoing China segment losses. Strategic options, including a potential sale of the China segment, could materially improve OTLY's EBITDA, balance sheet, and valuation multiples. New major shareholder involvement and operational improvements may set the stage for further margin gains or a possible acquisition scenario. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaNarrative Update • Feb 10
OTLY: Portfolio Greenshoots Will Ultimately Overcome Discounting And Execution Headwinds
Narrative Update: Oatly Group Analyst Price Target Change The consolidated analyst price target for Oatly Group has moved to $14, reflecting recent target reductions, including cuts to $18 and $14. Analysts are factoring in softer retail volumes, heavier discounting, and near-term headwinds that they see as offsetting areas of portfolio improvement for now.Narrative Update • Jan 26
OTLY: Margin Expansion Will Depend On Portfolio Greenshoots Overcoming Short Term Headwinds
Analysts have trimmed their price target for Oatly Group to $14, reflecting slightly higher discount rate assumptions alongside modestly adjusted expectations for revenue growth and future P/E multiples following recent mixed research updates on retail volumes, promotions, and regional momentum. Analyst Commentary Recent research has taken a more cautious tone around Oatly Group, with several bearish analysts revisiting their assumptions on growth, margins, and valuation.Narrative Update • Jan 12
OTLY: Margin Expansion Will Rely On Portfolio Progress Despite Short Term Headwinds
Analysts have trimmed their price target on Oatly Group to $14 from higher prior levels, citing softer recent retail volumes, heavier discounting, and near term headwinds that partly offset improving distribution gains and early signs of portfolio progress. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research reflects a more cautious tone around Oatly Group, even as some firms continue to highlight operational progress and early improvement in certain regions.Narrative Update • Dec 27
OTLY: Margin Expansion Will Support Optimism As Operational Improvements Take Hold
Analysts have trimmed their price target on Oatly Group to $14 from $17, citing softer near term retail trends and margin pressure, even as they point to early signs of revenue reacceleration and operational improvement that support a modestly higher long term growth and valuation profile. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research indicates that, while the long term narrative around Oatly Group is improving, several Bearish analysts are tempering expectations in the near term.Narrative Update • Dec 12
OTLY: Margin Expansion Potential Will Drive Optimism Despite Near Term Volume Weakness
Analysts have trimmed their fair value estimate for Oatly Group to $14.00 from $16.00, reflecting softer near term retail volumes and promotional activity. They also acknowledge improving supply efficiency, early signs of portfolio recovery, and a potential path to mid single digit revenue growth with margin expansion over the next few years.Analysis Article • Nov 01
Oatly Group AB (NASDAQ:OTLY) Third-Quarter Results Just Came Out: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For Next Year
As you might know, Oatly Group AB ( NASDAQ:OTLY ) recently reported its quarterly numbers. Revenues of US$223m beat...Analysis Article • Oct 01
Does Oatly Group (NASDAQ:OTLY) Have A Healthy Balance Sheet?
Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of...Analysis Article • Aug 05
Why Investors Shouldn't Be Surprised By Oatly Group AB's (NASDAQ:OTLY) 31% Share Price Surge
NasdaqGS:OTLY 1 Year Share Price vs Fair Value Explore Oatly Group's Fair Values from the Community and select yours...Analysis Article • Jun 21
Further Upside For Oatly Group AB (NASDAQ:OTLY) Shares Could Introduce Price Risks After 26% Bounce
The Oatly Group AB ( NASDAQ:OTLY ) share price has done very well over the last month, posting an excellent gain of...Analysis Article • May 02
Why Investors Shouldn't Be Surprised By Oatly Group AB's (NASDAQ:OTLY) P/S
There wouldn't be many who think Oatly Group AB's ( NASDAQ:OTLY ) price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.4x is worth a...
New Narrative • Mar 29
Supply Chain Simplification And Greater China Channels Will Empower Operations
Supply chain simplification and cost efficiencies are expected to improve operational efficiency, gross margins, and overall profitability.Seeking Alpha • Feb 21
Oatly's Oatmilk Bubble: Why The Once-Hot Brand May Be Fizzling Out
Summary Oatly stock has plummeted nearly 65% in the past year, facing secular decline and weak demand, making it unsuitable for long-term investors. Despite some financial improvements, Oatly's liquidity remains poor, with a cash-to-debt ratio of 0.2 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 4.69. Oatly's valuation appears expensive, trading at six times 2025 sales estimates, with modest growth projections and a slight turn to positive EBITDA. The company faces significant challenges, including competition from traditional dairy, negative health claims, and the loss of volume from its largest U.S. food service client. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAnalysis Article • Dec 21
Oatly Group (NASDAQ:OTLY) Has Debt But No Earnings; Should You Worry?
Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility...Analysis Article • Nov 16
Oatly Group AB (NASDAQ:OTLY) Might Not Be As Mispriced As It Looks After Plunging 27%
To the annoyance of some shareholders, Oatly Group AB ( NASDAQ:OTLY ) shares are down a considerable 27% in the last...Analysis Article • Sep 27
Investors Aren't Entirely Convinced By Oatly Group AB's (NASDAQ:OTLY) Revenues
There wouldn't be many who think Oatly Group AB's ( NASDAQ:OTLY ) price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.8x is worth a...Analysis Article • Jul 27
Analysts Are Updating Their Oatly Group AB (NASDAQ:OTLY) Estimates After Its Second-Quarter Results
It's been a sad week for Oatly Group AB ( NASDAQ:OTLY ), who've watched their investment drop 17% to US$0.97 in the...Seeking Alpha • Jul 17
Oatly: Making Improvements
Summary Oatly Group AB aims to disrupt the dairy market with oat-based products. The company has grown substantially, but at the same time has been posting substantial operating losses. These losses are now rapidly coming down, badly needed amidst dwindling cash balances, with net debt holdings rising rapidly here. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAnalysis Article • Jun 14
Is Oatly Group (NASDAQ:OTLY) A Risky Investment?
The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says...Seeking Alpha • May 02
Oatly: Turnaround Progressing
Summary Oatly's Q1 2024 results demonstrated further improvements in profitability, despite weak growth and cash flows. While OTLY's China business looks marginal, its core markets are performing well, and it has a sizable cash balance and declining cash burn. Oatly's share price continues to trail the improvements in the company's fundamentals. It appears likely that Oatly will need to transition to profitability before this disconnect disappears, though. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAnalysis Article • May 01
A Piece Of The Puzzle Missing From Oatly Group AB's (NASDAQ:OTLY) Share Price
It's not a stretch to say that Oatly Group AB's ( NASDAQ:OTLY ) price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.9x seems quite...Seeking Alpha • Feb 17
Oatly: Improving Fundamentals Still Not Reflected In The Stock Price
Summary Oatly had a solid 2023, despite a difficult macro environment, with improved margins and stabilized growth. The company is cutting overheads and pursuing asset-light production, leading to reduced losses, particularly in Asia. While Oatly is still pursuing profitability, it appears to be increasing growth investments in 2024, pushing back the timeline for breakeven. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAnalysis Article • Feb 13
Is Oatly Group (NASDAQ:OTLY) Using Too Much Debt?
Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility...Seeking Alpha • Jan 25
Oatly: Reasons To Remain Cautious
Summary Oatly has experienced a roller-coaster ride since its public debut, struggling with financial losses and a loss of market confidence. The stock has seen a resurgence in the past three months due to better-than-expected Q3 results and a new distribution deal, but this momentum may not be sustained. OTLY faces significant challenges, including significant losses, high competition in the plant-based milk market, and limited international growth opportunities. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAnalysis Article • Dec 27
Further Upside For Oatly Group AB (NASDAQ:OTLY) Shares Could Introduce Price Risks After 73% Bounce
Oatly Group AB ( NASDAQ:OTLY ) shareholders would be excited to see that the share price has had a great month, posting...Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts
| Date | Revenue | Earnings | Free Cash Flow | Cash from Op | Avg. No. Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2028 | 1,025 | -42 | 24 | N/A | 3 |
| 12/31/2027 | 964 | -75 | 18 | -1 | 4 |
| 12/31/2026 | 919 | -84 | -3 | -11 | 4 |
| 3/31/2026 | 893 | -152 | -30 | -15 | N/A |
| 12/31/2025 | 862 | -153 | -39 | -24 | N/A |
| 9/30/2025 | 843 | -225 | -54 | -28 | N/A |
| 6/30/2025 | 828 | -194 | -75 | -43 | N/A |
| 3/31/2025 | 822 | -169 | -131 | -89 | N/A |
| 12/31/2024 | 824 | -202 | -156 | -114 | N/A |
| 9/30/2024 | 813 | -409 | -164 | -118 | N/A |
| 6/30/2024 | 793 | -331 | -187 | -139 | N/A |
| 3/31/2024 | 787 | -387 | -181 | -133 | N/A |
| 12/31/2023 | 783 | -417 | -235 | -166 | N/A |
| 9/30/2023 | 774 | -243 | -289 | -205 | N/A |
| 6/30/2023 | 770 | -395 | -388 | -255 | N/A |
| 3/31/2023 | 752 | -381 | -451 | -271 | N/A |
| 12/31/2022 | 722 | -393 | -475 | -269 | N/A |
| 9/30/2022 | 713 | -347 | -543 | -280 | N/A |
| 6/30/2022 | 701 | -280 | -523 | -269 | N/A |
| 3/31/2022 | 669 | -267 | -541 | -254 | N/A |
| 12/31/2021 | 643 | -212 | -495 | -214 | N/A |
| 9/30/2021 | 584 | -170 | -418 | -172 | N/A |
| 6/30/2021 | 528 | -139 | -324 | -97 | N/A |
| 3/31/2021 | 477 | -85 | -236 | -74 | N/A |
| 12/31/2020 | 421 | -60 | -186 | -44 | N/A |
| 12/31/2019 | 204 | -36 | N/A | -39 | N/A |
Analyst Future Growth Forecasts
Earnings vs Savings Rate: OTLY is forecast to remain unprofitable over the next 3 years.
Earnings vs Market: OTLY is forecast to remain unprofitable over the next 3 years.
High Growth Earnings: OTLY is forecast to remain unprofitable over the next 3 years.
Revenue vs Market: OTLY's revenue (4.3% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (11.9% per year).
High Growth Revenue: OTLY's revenue (4.3% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.
Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts
Future Return on Equity
Future ROE: Insufficient data to determine if OTLY's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time
Discover growth companies
Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/05/31 01:13 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/05/29 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/03/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
| |
| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
|
|
| Market Prices | 30 years |
| |
| Ownership | 10 years |
| |
| Management | 10 years |
| |
| Key Developments | 10 years |
|
* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.
Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
Oatly Group AB is covered by 18 analysts. 4 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Andrew Lazar | Barclays |
| Max Andrew Gumport | BNP Paribas |
| Jeffrey Stent | BNP Paribas |