Oatly Group AB

NasdaqGS:OTLY Stock Report

Market Cap: US$391.5m

Oatly Group Valuation

Is OTLY undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of OTLY when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: OTLY ($0.62) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($3.44)

Significantly Below Fair Value: OTLY is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for OTLY?

Key metric: As OTLY is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for OTLY. This is calculated by dividing OTLY's market cap by their current revenue.
What is OTLY's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio0.5x
SalesUS$813.47m
Market CapUS$391.49m

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does OTLY's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for OTLY vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average0.9x
LWAY Lifeway Foods
1.9x11.4%US$362.1m
SENE.A Seneca Foods
0.4xn/aUS$534.1m
AFRI Forafric Global
0.9xn/aUS$276.3m
CVGW Calavo Growers
0.4x-13.1%US$464.8m
OTLY Oatly Group
0.5x6.2%US$391.5m

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: OTLY is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.5x) compared to the peer average (0.9x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does OTLY's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Food Industry?

23 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
DOLE Dole
0.2x0.9%US$1.36b
FARM Farmer Bros
0.1x4.6%US$40.41m
PME Pingtan Marine Enterprise
0.1xn/aUS$23.20m
SDOT Sadot Group
0.03x12.2%US$22.45m
OTLY 0.5xIndustry Avg. 0.9xNo. of Companies23PS00.81.62.43.24+
23 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: OTLY is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.5x) compared to the US Food industry average (0.9x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is OTLY's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

OTLY PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio0.5x
Fair PS Ratio0.7x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: OTLY is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.7x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst OTLY forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$0.62
US$1.89
+205.0%
52.1%US$4.00US$0.85n/a8
Dec ’25US$0.70
US$1.89
+170.5%
52.1%US$4.00US$0.85n/a8
Nov ’25US$0.80
US$1.97
+145.8%
47.0%US$4.00US$1.05n/a8
Oct ’25US$0.83
US$1.97
+136.9%
47.0%US$4.00US$1.05n/a8
Sep ’25US$0.87
US$1.97
+125.4%
47.0%US$4.00US$1.05n/a8
Aug ’25US$0.94
US$1.97
+108.1%
47.0%US$4.00US$1.05n/a8
Jul ’25US$0.92
US$1.98
+114.7%
47.4%US$4.00US$1.05n/a8
Jun ’25US$1.09
US$1.98
+81.5%
47.4%US$4.00US$1.05n/a8
May ’25US$1.17
US$1.98
+69.1%
47.4%US$4.00US$1.05n/a8
Apr ’25US$1.12
US$1.97
+75.8%
48.3%US$4.00US$1.05n/a8
Mar ’25US$1.08
US$1.97
+82.3%
48.3%US$4.00US$1.05n/a8
Feb ’25US$1.14
US$2.07
+81.2%
63.3%US$4.00US$0.63n/a5
Jan ’25US$1.18
US$2.06
+74.2%
58.1%US$4.00US$0.63n/a6
Dec ’24US$1.03
US$2.06
+99.5%
58.1%US$4.00US$0.63US$0.706
Nov ’24US$0.47
US$2.75
+484.7%
49.9%US$5.00US$0.75US$0.807
Oct ’24US$0.90
US$3.41
+280.8%
51.4%US$7.00US$1.40US$0.838
Sep ’24US$1.26
US$3.26
+158.8%
52.4%US$7.00US$1.40US$0.879
Aug ’24US$1.53
US$3.19
+108.2%
57.5%US$7.00US$1.40US$0.9410
Jul ’24US$2.05
US$4.53
+121.0%
42.8%US$7.00US$1.70US$0.9210
Jun ’24US$1.61
US$4.57
+184.0%
40.5%US$7.00US$1.70US$1.0911
May ’24US$2.24
US$4.76
+112.5%
33.4%US$7.00US$2.50US$1.1710
Apr ’24US$2.42
US$4.63
+91.2%
34.0%US$7.00US$2.50US$1.1211
Mar ’24US$2.17
US$4.32
+98.9%
39.9%US$7.00US$2.00US$1.0812
Feb ’24US$2.59
US$4.32
+66.7%
39.9%US$7.00US$2.00US$1.1412
Jan ’24US$1.74
US$3.87
+122.2%
51.4%US$7.00US$1.50US$1.1812
Dec ’23US$1.65
US$4.21
+154.9%
42.3%US$7.00US$2.10US$1.0313

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/18 22:35
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/18 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Oatly Group AB is covered by 23 analysts. 8 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Edward LewisAtlantic Equities LLP
Andrew LazarBarclays
Max Andrew GumportBNP Paribas Exane