Assessing Mondelez (MDLZ) Valuation as Recent Momentum Fades and Fundamentals Remain Resilient

Mondelez International (MDLZ) shares have shown mixed performance recently, with the stock dipping nearly 9% over the past three months but still holding gains so far this year. Investors are weighing current momentum in comparison to the company’s steady fundamentals.

See our latest analysis for Mondelez International.

This recent dip follows a steady year-to-date share price return of 3.3%. Over the past 12 months, Mondelez International delivered a total shareholder return of -10.4%. Despite the recent pressure, the longer-term three- and five-year total shareholder returns of 16.6% and 19.8% suggest the company’s resilience. However, momentum has faded lately and investors are reassessing future growth versus valuation.

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With the stock trading below analyst price targets and fundamentals remaining relatively robust, the question is whether Mondelez International is currently undervalued or if the market has already priced in its growth prospects. Could this be a buying opportunity?

Most Popular Narrative: 16.6% Undervalued

Mondelez International’s widely followed narrative suggests the stock’s fair value sits significantly above its recent close, framing the current market price as an attractive entry point. The fair value is calculated using a discount rate of 6.78%, factoring in sustainable future growth and margin trends. This invites investors to dig deeper into the drivers behind this valuation.

Mondelez International is executing a robust pricing strategy in response to high cocoa costs, which is expected to improve revenue as pricing takes effect globally, especially in markets like Europe and emerging markets. The company is implementing a strategic growth agenda that includes reinvesting in brands, expanding distribution, and strengthening market presence, which should positively impact revenue growth and market share.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious what kind of growth justifies this premium? The narrative prices in bold assumptions about both global expansion and rising profitability. This hints at quantitative drivers that might surprise those used to more modest sector outlooks. Click through to uncover exactly how these forward-looking projections stack up and what could set Mondelez apart in the coming years.

Result: Fair Value of $73.67 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, persistent volatility in cocoa costs and higher price sensitivity in Europe could dampen Mondelez International's growth outlook in the near term.

Find out about the key risks to this Mondelez International narrative.

Build Your Own Mondelez International Narrative

If you want to see where your own analysis leads, it only takes a few minutes to shape your personal view of Mondelez International. Do it your way

A great starting point for your Mondelez International research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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