Does Kraft Heinz Slide in 2025 Signal a Value Opportunity After Cost Focus Shift?

• If you are wondering whether Kraft Heinz is a beaten down staple or a quiet value opportunity, you are not alone, and that is exactly what we are going to unpack here.
• The stock has slipped around 20.5% year to date and is down 18.2% over the last year, even though the last week saw a modest 0.5% bounce after a softer 1.2% dip over the past month.
• Recent headlines have focused on Kraft Heinz leaning harder into cost discipline and portfolio simplification, while also pushing into higher margin product innovations and strategic partnerships in key categories. At the same time, investors are weighing the impact of shifting consumer demand and competitive pressure in packaged foods, which adds useful context to the share price drift.
• Despite that backdrop, Kraft Heinz currently scores a 4 out of 6 on our valuation checks, suggesting it screens as undervalued on most metrics and warrants a closer look at how different valuation methods stack up before we wrap up with a way to think about its true worth.

Find out why Kraft Heinz's -18.2% return over the last year is lagging behind its peers.

Approach 1: Kraft Heinz Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

A Discounted Cash Flow model takes the cash that a business is expected to generate in the future, then discounts those projections back to today to estimate what the company is worth right now.

For Kraft Heinz, Simply Wall St uses a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity model built on cash flow projections. The company generated roughly $3.54 billion of free cash flow over the last twelve months, and analysts see this staying broadly stable, with $3.22 billion projected for 2026 and around $3.31 billion by 2028. Beyond those analyst years, Simply Wall St extrapolates the trajectory, pointing to free cash flow of about $3.99 billion in 2035, all expressed in $.

When these future cash flows are discounted back to today, the model suggests an intrinsic value of about $68.79 per share. Compared with the current market price, this implies Kraft Heinz is trading at roughly a 64.5% discount. On cash flows alone, this suggests the market may be pricing the business too pessimistically.

Result: UNDERVALUED

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Kraft Heinz is undervalued by 64.5%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 907 more undervalued stocks based on cash flows.

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Kraft Heinz.

Approach 2: Kraft Heinz Price vs Sales

For a mature, profitable staples business like Kraft Heinz, the price to sales ratio is a useful way to judge value because revenue tends to be relatively stable and less affected by accounting swings than earnings. In general, higher expected growth and lower perceived risk can justify a richer sales multiple, while slower growth and more uncertainty should pull that multiple down.

Kraft Heinz currently trades on a price to sales ratio of about 1.15x. That sits below the peer group average of roughly 1.80x, but above the broader Food industry average of around 0.68x, suggesting the market already gives Kraft Heinz a premium to the typical food company, yet at a discount to closer comparables.

Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio for Kraft Heinz is 1.38x. This is its estimate of the appropriate price to sales multiple once you factor in growth prospects, profit margins, risk profile, industry and market cap. This tailored benchmark is more informative than a simple industry or peer comparison because it adjusts for what actually makes Kraft Heinz different. With the current 1.15x multiple sitting below the 1.38x Fair Ratio, the shares screen as undervalued on this metric.

Result: UNDERVALUED

PS ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover 1448 companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.

Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Kraft Heinz Narrative

Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let us introduce you to Narratives, which are simply your story about a company, translated into a set of numbers like future revenue, earnings and margins that link a business story to a financial forecast and then to a fair value estimate.

On Simply Wall St’s Community page, used by millions of investors, Narratives are an easy, accessible tool that let you set your own assumptions for Kraft Heinz, see the resulting Fair Value, and then compare that to the current share price to decide whether it looks like a buy, hold or sell today.

Because Narratives update dynamically as new information comes in, such as earnings, guidance changes or major news, your view of Kraft Heinz can stay aligned with what is actually happening in the business rather than relying on a static snapshot.

For example, one investor might build a more optimistic Kraft Heinz Narrative that leans toward the higher end of recent price targets, closer to about $51 per share. Another might plug in more cautious assumptions that support a view nearer the low end, around $27. Narratives make those differences in expectations, risk and opportunity completely transparent.

Do you think there's more to the story for Kraft Heinz? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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