NasdaqGS:KDP

Stock Analysis Report

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Executive Summary

Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. operates as a beverage company in the United States and internationally. More Details


Snowflake Analysis

Fair value with acceptable track record.


Similar Companies

Share Price & News

How has Keurig Dr Pepper's share price performed over time and what events caused price changes?


Latest Share Price and Events

Stable Share Price: KDP is less volatile than 75% of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 3% a week.

Volatility Over Time: KDP's weekly volatility (3%) has been stable over the past year.


Market Performance


7 Day Return

0%

KDP

-1.4%

US Beverage

1.5%

US Market


1 Year Return

13.6%

KDP

-1.3%

US Beverage

22.8%

US Market

Return vs Industry: KDP exceeded the US Beverage industry which returned -0.1% over the past year.

Return vs Market: KDP underperformed the US Market which returned 21.1% over the past year.


Shareholder returns

KDPIndustryMarket
7 Day0%-1.4%1.5%
30 Day1.5%-2.8%5.0%
90 Day8.0%3.1%15.2%
1 Year16.1%13.6%1.4%-1.3%25.6%22.8%
3 Yearn/a18.9%9.7%47.3%37.5%
5 Yearn/a55.3%35.9%133.4%107.3%

Long-Term Price Volatility Vs. Market

How volatile is Keurig Dr Pepper's share price compared to the market and industry in the last 5 years?


Simply Wall St News

Valuation

Is Keurig Dr Pepper undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?

35.6%

Undervalued compared to fair value


Share Price vs. Fair Value

Below Fair Value: KDP ($31.95) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($44.87)

Significantly Below Fair Value: KDP is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Price To Earnings Ratio

PE vs Industry: KDP is poor value based on its PE Ratio (34.5x) compared to the US Beverage industry average (25.9x).

PE vs Market: KDP is poor value based on its PE Ratio (34.5x) compared to the US market (21.2x).


Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: KDP is poor value based on its PEG Ratio (2.5x)


Price to Book Ratio

PB vs Industry: KDP is good value based on its PB Ratio (1.9x) compared to the US Beverage industry average (5.3x).


Next Steps

Future Growth

How is Keurig Dr Pepper forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 15 analysts?

12.2%

Forecasted annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts


Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: KDP's forecast earnings growth (13.8% per year) is above the savings rate (2%).

Earnings vs Market: KDP's earnings (13.8% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the US market (21.5% per year).

High Growth Earnings: KDP's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: KDP's revenue (3.1% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (10.4% per year).

High Growth Revenue: KDP's revenue (3.1% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.


Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts


Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: KDP's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (9.6%).


Next Steps

Past Performance

How has Keurig Dr Pepper performed over the past 5 years?

18.7%

Historical annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: KDP has a large one-off loss of $451.0M impacting its September 30 2020 financial results.

Growing Profit Margin: KDP's current net profit margins (11.4%) are higher than last year (10.1%).


Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: KDP's earnings have grown by 18.7% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: KDP's earnings growth over the past year (16.8%) is below its 5-year average (18.7% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: KDP earnings growth over the past year (16.8%) exceeded the Beverage industry 11%.


Return on Equity

High ROE: KDP's Return on Equity (5.6%) is considered low.


Next Steps

Financial Health

How is Keurig Dr Pepper's financial position?


Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: KDP's short term assets ($2.4B) do not cover its short term liabilities ($7.3B).

Long Term Liabilities: KDP's short term assets ($2.4B) do not cover its long term liabilities ($18.8B).


Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: KDP's debt to equity ratio (59.7%) is considered high.

Reducing Debt: KDP's debt to equity ratio has increased from 12.6% to 59.7% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: KDP's debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (16.8%).

Interest Coverage: KDP's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (4.6x coverage).


Balance Sheet


Next Steps

Dividend

What is Keurig Dr Pepper current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

1.90%

Current Dividend Yield


Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: KDP's dividend (1.88%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the US market (1.38%).

High Dividend: KDP's dividend (1.88%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the US market (3.87%).


Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Whilst dividend payments have been stable, KDP has been paying a dividend for less than 10 years.

Growing Dividend: KDP has only been paying a dividend for 2 years, and since then payments have not increased.


Current Payout to Shareholders

Dividend Coverage: With its reasonable payout ratio (64.8%), KDP's dividend payments are covered by earnings.


Future Payout to Shareholders

Future Dividend Coverage: KDP's dividends in 3 years are forecast to be well covered by earnings (36.9% payout ratio).


Next Steps

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

2.5yrs

Average management tenure


CEO

Bob Gamgort (58 yo)

4.67yrs

Tenure

US$9,204,921

Compensation

Mr. Robert J. Gamgort, also known as Bob, has been Chief Executive Officer at Keurig Dr Pepper Inc., (formerly Keurig Green Mountain, Inc). since May 02, 2016 and its Executive Director since July 9, 2018....


CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Bob's total compensation ($USD9.20M) is about average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD10.54M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Bob's compensation has increased by more than 20% in the past year.


Leadership Team

NamePositionTenureCompensationOwnership
Robert Gamgort
Executive Chairman & CEO4.67yrsUS$9.20m0.17%
$ 76.0m
Ozan Dokmecioglu
CFO & President of International2.5yrsUS$4.11m0.075%
$ 33.4m
Mary DeNooyer
Chief Human Resources Officer1.5yrsUS$5.79m0.0077%
$ 3.4m
Herbert Hopkins
Chief Commercial Officer & President of Cold Beverages2.5yrsUS$2.54m0.031%
$ 13.8m
Fernando Cortes
Chief Supply Chain Officer2.5yrsUS$2.44m0.0093%
$ 4.1m
Robert Stiller
no dataUS$102.65kno data
Tyson Seely
Vice President of Investor Relationsno datano datano data
James Baldwin
Chief Legal Officer2.5yrsUS$8.06mno data
Monique Oxender
Chief Sustainability Officerno datano datano data
Mark Wood
Chief Business Development & Partners Officer5.33yrsno datano data
Maria Sceppaguercio-Gever
Chief Corporate Affairs Officer2.5yrsno data0.0097%
$ 4.3m
David McMichael
Senior Vice President of Direct Store Deliveryno datano datano data

2.5yrs

Average Tenure

54yo

Average Age

Experienced Management: KDP's management team is considered experienced (2.5 years average tenure).


Board Members

NamePositionTenureCompensationOwnership
Robert Gamgort
Executive Chairman & CEO4.67yrsUS$9.20m0.17%
$ 76.0m
Robert Singer
Independent Director2.5yrsUS$290.00k0.0054%
$ 2.4m
Larry Young
Director14yrsUS$260.00k0.055%
$ 24.2m
Peter Harf
Director2.5yrsUS$290.00k0.013%
$ 5.6m
Pamela Patsley
Independent Director12.75yrsUS$260.00k0.0014%
$ 630.3k
Paul Michaels
Independent Director2.5yrsUS$260.00k0.000010%
$ 4.4k
Dirk Van de Put
Director2.5yrsUS$260.00kno data
Gerhard Pleuhs
Director2.5yrsUS$260.00kno data
Justine Tan
Director0.083yrno datano data
Olivier Goudet
Director2.5yrsUS$260.00k0.0043%
$ 1.9m
Genevieve Hovde
Independent Director2.5yrsUS$260.00kno data

2.5yrs

Average Tenure

63yo

Average Age

Experienced Board: KDP's board of directors are not considered experienced ( 2.5 years average tenure), which suggests a new board.


Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?


Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: KDP insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.


Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.


Top Shareholders

Company Information

Keurig Dr Pepper Inc.'s company bio, employee growth, exchange listings and data sources


Key Information

  • Name: Keurig Dr Pepper Inc.
  • Ticker: KDP
  • Exchange: NasdaqGS
  • Founded: 1981
  • Industry: Soft Drinks
  • Sector: Food, Beverage & Tobacco
  • Market Cap: US$44.385b
  • Shares outstanding: 1.41b
  • Website: https://www.keurigdrpepper.com

Number of Employees


Location

  • Keurig Dr Pepper Inc.
  • 53 South Avenue
  • Burlington
  • Massachusetts
  • 1803
  • United States

Listings

TickerExchangePrimary SecuritySecurity TypeCountryCurrencyListed on
KDPNasdaqGS (Nasdaq Global Select)YesCommon SharesUSUSDJul 2018
DP5DB (Deutsche Boerse AG)YesCommon SharesDEEURJul 2018
0Z62LSE (London Stock Exchange)YesCommon SharesGBUSDJul 2018
KDPWBAG (Wiener Boerse AG)YesCommon SharesATEURJul 2018

Biography

Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. operates as a beverage company in the United States and internationally. It operates through four segments: Coffee Systems, Packaged Beverages, Beverage Concentrates, and Latin Americ...


Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

All financial data provided by Standard & Poor's Capital IQ.
DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2021/01/21 23:38
End of Day Share Price2021/01/21 00:00
Earnings2020/09/30
Annual Earnings2019/12/31


Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.