Expro (XPRO) One-Off $34.4M Loss Challenges Positive Profitability Narrative

Expro Group Holdings (XPRO) has turned the corner on profitability, reporting average annual earnings growth of 74.8% over the last five years and now expecting earnings to grow at a 12.1% annual rate. Revenue is forecast to increase by 2.1% per year moving forward, trailing the broader US market’s projected growth. While a one-off $34.4 million loss in the most recent 12-month period to September 30, 2025, influenced reported earnings quality, margins are showing clear improvement as the company achieves steady profitability.

See our full analysis for Expro Group Holdings.

Next, we will see how these fresh numbers compare to the stories circulating in the market and among the Simply Wall St community. Some widely held views may be confirmed, while others could face a serious reality check.

See what the community is saying about Expro Group Holdings

Order Backlog Drives Forward Revenue Visibility

• Expro's growing backlog, supported by strong global energy demand and multiyear international projects, is positioned to deliver steady long-term revenue growth. However, analysts now estimate annual revenue may decrease by 0.3% over the next three years.
• According to the analysts' consensus view, key drivers supporting this resilience include:
  • Increased geopolitical tensions and demand for energy security, which bolster backlog and provide higher forward visibility in offshore and international markets,
  • Ongoing investments in technology and diversified services that contribute to more stable and sustainable margins compared to competitors.
• Even with near-term caution in headline revenue forecasts, consensus narrative highlights how an expanding backlog could provide downside protection if energy markets remain volatile.

Consensus expectations highlight the need to see if Expro’s backlog can truly offset lower revenue forecasts over the next few years.
📊 Read the full Expro Group Holdings Consensus Narrative.

Margin Expansion Outpaces Industry Peers

• Profit margins are projected to increase from 4.3% today to 4.9% in three years. This supports management’s focus on cost initiatives and operational efficiency.
• Analysts' consensus view highlights:
  • How portfolio diversification, technology advancements, and operational programs (such as Drive25) are working together to drive sustainable EBITDA margin expansion,
  • The realization of synergies from recent M&A activity enables Expro to outperform many peers on profitability, especially in challenging market conditions.

DCF Fair Value Signals Deep Discount

• With a current share price of $13.53, Expro trades at less than half its DCF fair value of $30.34, despite a PE ratio above the industry average (Expro at 17.6x compared to US Energy Services at 13.5x).
• Analysts' consensus view contends:
  • That while Expro carries high valuation multiples, the substantial discount to DCF fair value may suggest good value if future earnings materialize and recent earnings volatility is addressed,
  • However, investors must weigh the elevated valuation against potential risks from earnings quality and sector headwinds before considering upside implied by the DCF calculation.

Next Steps

To see how these results tie into long-term growth, risks, and valuation, check out the full range of community narratives for Expro Group Holdings on Simply Wall St. Add the company to your watchlist or portfolio so you'll be alerted when the story evolves.

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A great starting point for your Expro Group Holdings research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

See What Else Is Out There

While Expro’s backlog and margin initiatives offer some protection, inconsistent revenue forecasts and volatile earnings highlight its vulnerability to shifting energy markets.

If you want companies already demonstrating more predictable expansion, prioritize steady performance with stable growth stocks screener (2091 results) to discover options delivering reliably consistent growth through changing conditions.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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