We Think Valero Energy's (NYSE:VLO) Robust Earnings Are Conservative

Valero Energy Corporation (NYSE:VLO) just reported healthy earnings but the stock price didn't move much. We think that investors have missed some encouraging factors underlying the profit figures.

Check out our latest analysis for Valero Energy

Examining Cashflow Against Valero Energy's Earnings

Many investors haven't heard of the accrual ratio from cashflow, but it is actually a useful measure of how well a company's profit is backed up by free cash flow (FCF) during a given period. The accrual ratio subtracts the FCF from the profit for a given period, and divides the result by the average operating assets of the company over that time. The ratio shows us how much a company's profit exceeds its FCF.

As a result, a negative accrual ratio is a positive for the company, and a positive accrual ratio is a negative. While having an accrual ratio above zero is of little concern, we do think it's worth noting when a company has a relatively high accrual ratio. Notably, there is some academic evidence that suggests that a high accrual ratio is a bad sign for near-term profits, generally speaking.

Over the twelve months to December 2021, Valero Energy recorded an accrual ratio of -0.11. That indicates that its free cash flow was a fair bit more than its statutory profit. In fact, it had free cash flow of US$4.2b in the last year, which was a lot more than its statutory profit of US$924.0m. Given that Valero Energy had negative free cash flow in the prior corresponding period, the trailing twelve month resul of US$4.2b would seem to be a step in the right direction.

That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.

Our Take On Valero Energy's Profit Performance

As we discussed above, Valero Energy has perfectly satisfactory free cash flow relative to profit. Because of this, we think Valero Energy's earnings potential is at least as good as it seems, and maybe even better! And it's also positive that the company showed enough improvement to book a profit this year, after losing money last year. Of course, we've only just scratched the surface when it comes to analysing its earnings; one could also consider margins, forecast growth, and return on investment, among other factors. With this in mind, we wouldn't consider investing in a stock unless we had a thorough understanding of the risks. Case in point: We've spotted 1 warning sign for Valero Energy you should be aware of.

Today we've zoomed in on a single data point to better understand the nature of Valero Energy's profit. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying to be useful.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.