How Upbeat Analyst Forecasts Could Shape Valero Energy's (VLO) Investment Narrative Ahead of Earnings

• Valero Energy recently attracted attention as analysts revised their earnings estimates higher and forecast substantial year-over-year growth ahead of its October 23, 2025, earnings release.
• This increased confidence reflects Valero’s consistent history of outperforming analysts’ expectations and its premium valuation compared to industry peers.
• We'll explore how heightened analyst optimism and positive estimate revisions could impact Valero Energy's overall investment story.

These 13 companies survived and thrived after COVID and have the right ingredients to survive Trump's tariffs. Discover why before your portfolio feels the trade war pinch.

Valero Energy Investment Narrative Recap

Investors in Valero Energy are essentially betting on the company's ability to deliver long-term profit growth from its refining and renewable operations, supported by operational strength and shareholder returns, despite regulatory and margin pressures. The recent wave of analyst optimism ahead of the October earnings release is centered squarely on improved earnings expectations, which positions the event as a potential short-term catalyst; however, longer-term risks, such as the uncertain outcome of the Benicia refinery negotiations and cost impacts from regulatory changes, remain material and unchanged by the news.

Among the latest announcements, the ongoing discussions regarding the possible sale of the Benicia refinery stand out as particularly relevant. This development ties directly into the risk of asset impairments and unexpected closure costs, both of which could influence Valero’s financial health and the significance of upcoming earnings figures to its overall outlook.

However, investors should be aware that despite recent analyst optimism, unresolved regulatory hurdles tied to the Benicia refinery could still...

Read the full narrative on Valero Energy (it's free!)

Valero Energy's outlook forecasts $116.8 billion revenue and $3.8 billion earnings by 2028. This is based on a yearly revenue decline of 0.2% and a $3.04 billion increase in earnings from $760.0 million today.

Uncover how Valero Energy's forecasts yield a $169.00 fair value, a 4% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Simply Wall St Community fair value estimates for Valero span from US$120 to US$314.94, with five unique perspectives. With operational challenges and asset uncertainties still present, readers can explore several sharply contrasting outlooks on the stock’s outlook.

Explore 5 other fair value estimates on Valero Energy - why the stock might be worth as much as 93% more than the current price!

Build Your Own Valero Energy Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Valero Energy research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Valero Energy research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Valero Energy's overall financial health at a glance.

Ready For A Different Approach?

Our top stock finds are flying under the radar-for now. Get in early:

• The best AI stocks today may lie beyond giants like Nvidia and Microsoft. Find the next big opportunity with these 25 smaller AI-focused companies with strong growth potential through early-stage innovation in machine learning, automation, and data intelligence that could fund your retirement.
• Uncover the next big thing with financially sound penny stocks that balance risk and reward.
• The end of cancer? These 28 emerging AI stocks are developing tech that will allow early identification of life changing diseases like cancer and Alzheimer's.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com