Texas Pacific Land Corporation

NYSE:TPL Stock Report

Market Cap: US$18.4b

Texas Pacific Land Valuation

Is TPL undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

0/6

Valuation Score 0/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of TPL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: TPL ($801.26) is trading above our estimate of fair value ($633.28)

Significantly Below Fair Value: TPL is trading above our estimate of fair value.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for TPL?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

TPL key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue26.7x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA33x
PEG Ratio2.8x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does TPL's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for TPL vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average15.5x
MRO Marathon Oil
11.1x-2.6%US$15.9b
CTRA Coterra Energy
15.6x18.5%US$20.2b
EQT EQT
26.5x34.8%US$16.4b
DVN Devon Energy
8.7x1.3%US$29.2b
TPL Texas Pacific Land
42.5x15.0%US$18.4b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: TPL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (42.5x) compared to the peer average (15.5x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does TPL's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Oil and Gas Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a5.5%
n/an/an/a
No. of CompaniesPE048121620

Fetching data

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a5.5%
n/an/an/a
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: TPL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (42.5x) compared to the US Oil and Gas industry average (11.1x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is TPL's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

TPL PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio42.5x
Fair PE Ratio15.5x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: TPL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (42.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.5x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst TPL forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$801.26
US$741.07
-7.5%
23.7%US$917.00US$565.13n/a2
Jul ’25US$724.86
US$741.07
+2.2%
23.7%US$917.00US$565.13n/a2
Jun ’25US$614.31
US$741.07
+20.6%
23.7%US$917.00US$565.13n/a2
May ’25US$558.69
US$660.71
+18.3%
27.7%US$917.00US$500.00n/a3
Apr ’25US$571.09
US$651.04
+14.0%
29.4%US$916.67US$471.33n/a3
Mar ’25US$521.91
US$651.04
+24.7%
29.4%US$916.67US$471.33n/a3
Feb ’25US$483.21
US$651.04
+34.7%
29.4%US$916.67US$471.33n/a3
Jan ’25US$524.15
US$718.00
+37.0%
27.7%US$916.67US$519.33n/a2
Dec ’24US$582.09
US$718.00
+23.3%
27.7%US$916.67US$519.33n/a2
Nov ’24US$614.25
US$727.17
+18.4%
26.1%US$916.67US$537.67n/a2
Oct ’24US$607.85
US$728.67
+19.9%
25.8%US$916.67US$540.67n/a2
Sep ’24US$636.11
US$728.67
+14.6%
25.8%US$916.67US$540.67n/a2
Aug ’24US$495.19
US$686.83
+38.7%
33.5%US$916.67US$457.00n/a2
Jul ’24US$438.83
US$688.00
+56.8%
33.2%US$916.67US$459.33US$724.862
Jun ’24US$443.10
US$688.00
+55.3%
33.2%US$916.67US$459.33US$614.312
May ’24US$492.38
US$691.50
+40.4%
32.6%US$916.67US$466.33US$558.692
Apr ’24US$567.01
US$724.67
+27.8%
26.5%US$916.67US$532.67US$571.092
Mar ’24US$598.44
US$724.67
+21.1%
26.5%US$916.67US$532.67US$521.912
Feb ’24US$650.22
US$724.67
+11.4%
26.5%US$916.67US$532.67US$483.212
Jan ’24US$781.41
US$759.83
-2.8%
20.6%US$916.67US$603.00US$524.152
Dec ’23US$852.77
US$718.83
-15.7%
27.5%US$916.67US$521.00US$582.092
Nov ’23US$780.74
US$593.83
-23.9%
12.3%US$666.67US$521.00US$614.252
Oct ’23US$592.41
US$589.50
-0.5%
13.1%US$666.67US$512.33US$607.852
Sep ’23US$596.58
US$583.33
-2.2%
14.3%US$666.67US$500.00US$636.112
Aug ’23US$607.31
US$505.56
-16.8%
25.6%US$666.67US$350.00US$495.193
Jul ’23US$508.99
US$507.44
-0.3%
25.5%US$666.67US$350.00US$438.833

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.


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