Texas Pacific Land (NYSE:TPL) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of TPL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

TPL ($1744.6) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] ($2148.65)

TPL fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	1/6
Future Growth	2/6
Past Performance	5/6
Financial Health	6/6
Dividends	0/6

TPL Stock Overview

Texas Pacific Land Corporation engages in the land and resource management, and water services and operations businesses.

Rewards

Trading at 18.8% below our estimate of its fair value

Earnings are forecast to grow 12.58% per year

Earnings have grown 16.9% per year over the past 5 years

Risk Analysis

TPL passed our risk checks.

Texas Pacific Land Competitors

Marathon Oil

NYSE:MRO

US$16.2b

Chesapeake Energy

NasdaqGS:CHK

US$11.8b

APA

NasdaqGS:APA

US$11.4b

Antero Resources

NYSE:AR

US$12.3b

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Texas Pacific Land
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	US$1,744.60
52 Week High	US$1,886.04
52 Week Low	US$946.29
Beta	2.03
1 Month Change	12.67%
3 Month Change	29.05%
1 Year Change	15.65%
3 Year Change	165.22%
5 Year Change	377.71%
Change since IPO	25,002.16%

Recent News & Updates

Aug 05

Does Texas Pacific Land (NYSE:TPL) Deserve A Spot On Your Watchlist?

Investors are often guided by the idea of discovering 'the next big thing', even if that means buying 'story stocks...

Aug 03

Texas Pacific Land GAAP EPS of $15.37 misses by $0.08, revenue of $176.27M beats by $1.48M

Texas Pacific Land press release (NYSE:TPL): Q2 GAAP EPS of $15.37 misses by $0.08. Revenue of $176.27M (+83.7% Y/Y) beats by $1.48M.

Jul 20

Is Texas Pacific Land Corporation (NYSE:TPL) Trading At A 20% Discount?

Does the July share price for Texas Pacific Land Corporation ( NYSE:TPL ) reflect what it's really worth? Today, we...

Shareholder Returns

	TPL	US Oil and Gas	US Market
7D	6.3%	8.4%	1.3%
1Y	15.6%	54.7%	-11.7%

Return vs Industry: TPL underperformed the US Oil and Gas industry which returned 49.9% over the past year.

Return vs Market: TPL exceeded the US Market which returned -11.6% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is TPL's price volatile compared to industry and market?
TPL volatility
TPL Average Weekly Movement	7.1%
Oil and Gas Industry Average Movement	8.9%
Market Average Movement	7.8%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market	16.9%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market	3.2%

Stable Share Price: TPL is not significantly more volatile than the rest of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 7% a week.

Volatility Over Time: TPL's weekly volatility (7%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1888	92	Tyler Glover	https://www.texaspacific.com

Texas Pacific Land Corporation engages in the land and resource management, and water services and operations businesses. The company’s Land and Resource Management segment manages approximately 880,000 acres of land. This segment also holds own a 1/128th nonparticipating perpetual oil and gas royalty interest (NPRI) under approximately 85,000 acres of land; a 1/16th NPRI under approximately 371,000 acres of land; and approximately 4,000 additional net royalty acres located in the western part of Texas.

Texas Pacific Land Fundamentals Summary

How do Texas Pacific Land's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
TPL fundamental statistics
Market Cap	US$13.47b
Earnings (TTM)	US$379.68m
Revenue (TTM)	US$594.48m

35.5x

P/E Ratio

22.7x

P/S Ratio

Is TPL overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
TPL income statement (TTM)
Revenue	US$594.48m
Cost of Revenue	US$13.08m
Gross Profit	US$581.40m
Other Expenses	US$201.72m
Earnings	US$379.68m

Last Reported Earnings

Jun 30, 2022

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	49.17
Gross Margin	97.80%
Net Profit Margin	63.87%
Debt/Equity Ratio	0.0%

How did TPL perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

0.7%

Current Dividend Yield

23%

Payout Ratio

Does TPL pay a reliable dividends?

See TPL dividend history and benchmarks

When do you need to buy TPL by to receive an upcoming dividend?
Texas Pacific Land dividend dates
Ex Dividend Date	Sep 07 2022
Dividend Pay Date	Sep 15 2022
Days until Ex dividend	25 days
Days until Dividend pay date	33 days

Does TPL pay a reliable dividends?

See TPL dividend history and benchmarks

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is TPL undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

1/6

Valuation Score 1/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for TPL?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for TPL. This is calculated by dividing TPL's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is TPL's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	US$13.47b

TPL key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	22x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	25.1x
PEG Ratio	2.8x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does TPL's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

TPL PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for TPL vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	7.3x
MRO Marathon Oil	5.2x	-38.2%	US$16.2b
CHK Chesapeake Energy	7.5x	9.4%	US$11.8b
APA APA	3.7x	-23.1%	US$11.4b
AR Antero Resources	12.8x	8.0%	US$12.3b
TPL Texas Pacific Land	35.5x	12.6%	US$13.5b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: TPL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (35.5x) compared to the peer average (7.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does TPL's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Oil and Gas Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: TPL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (35.5x) compared to the US Oil and Gas industry average (9.8x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is TPL's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

TPL PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	35.5x
Fair PE Ratio	19.7x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: TPL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (35.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (19.7x).

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of TPL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: TPL ($1744.6) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($2148.65)

Significantly Below Fair Value: TPL is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.

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Future Growth

How is Texas Pacific Land forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 3 analysts?

Future Growth Score

2/6

Future Growth Score 2/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

12.6%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: TPL's forecast earnings growth (12.6% per year) is above the savings rate (1.9%).

Earnings vs Market: TPL's earnings (12.6% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the US market (14.5% per year).

High Growth Earnings: TPL's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: TPL's revenue (10.5% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the US market (8% per year).

High Growth Revenue: TPL's revenue (10.5% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: TPL's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (0.4%).

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Past Performance

How has Texas Pacific Land performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

5/6

Past Performance Score 5/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

16.9%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: TPL has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: TPL's current net profit margins (63.9%) are higher than last year (60.2%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: TPL's earnings have grown by 16.9% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: TPL's earnings growth over the past year (91.6%) exceeds its 5-year average (16.9% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: TPL earnings growth over the past year (91.6%) underperformed the Oil and Gas industry 172.9%.

Return on Equity

High ROE: TPL's Return on Equity (58.8%) is considered outstanding.

Discover strong past performing companies

Financial Health

How is Texas Pacific Land's financial position?

Financial Health Score

6/6

Financial Health Score 6/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: TPL's short term assets ($523.9M) exceed its short term liabilities ($57.1M).

Long Term Liabilities: TPL's short term assets ($523.9M) exceed its long term liabilities ($62.4M).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: TPL is debt free.

Reducing Debt: TPL has not had any debt for past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: TPL has no debt, therefore it does not need to be covered by operating cash flow.

Interest Coverage: TPL has no debt, therefore coverage of interest payments is not a concern.

Balance Sheet

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Dividend

What is Texas Pacific Land current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

0/6

Dividend Score 0/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Cash Flow Coverage

0.69%

Current Dividend Yield

Upcoming Dividend Payment

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: TPL's dividend (0.69%) isn’t notable compared to the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the US market (1.5%).

High Dividend: TPL's dividend (0.69%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the US market (4.05%).

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: TPL is not paying a notable dividend for the US market, therefore no need to check if payments are stable.

Growing Dividend: TPL is not paying a notable dividend for the US market, therefore no need to check if payments are increasing.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: TPL is not paying a notable dividend for the US market.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: TPL is not paying a notable dividend for the US market.

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Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

5.2yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Tyler Glover (37 yo)

5.75yrs

Tenure

US$4,969,831

Compensation

Mr. Tyler Glover serves as President and Chief Executive Officer at Texas Pacific Land Corporation and its Trustee since January 11, 2021. He served as Chief Executive Officer, General Agent and Secretary...

CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Tyler's total compensation ($USD4.97M) is below average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD12.88M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Tyler's compensation has increased by more than 20% in the past year.

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: TPL's management team is seasoned and experienced (5.2 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: TPL's board of directors are not considered experienced ( 1.6 years average tenure), which suggests a new board.

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: TPL insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/08/11 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/08/11 00:00
Earnings	2022/06/30
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31