Stock Analysis

Concerns Surrounding Texas Pacific Land's (NYSE:TPL) Performance

Texas Pacific Land Corporation's (NYSE:TPL ) stock didn't jump after it announced some healthy earnings. We did some digging and believe investors may be worried about some underlying factors in the report.

earnings-and-revenue-history
NYSE:TPL Earnings and Revenue History August 13th 2025
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A Closer Look At Texas Pacific Land's Earnings

One key financial ratio used to measure how well a company converts its profit to free cash flow (FCF) is the accrual ratio. The accrual ratio subtracts the FCF from the profit for a given period, and divides the result by the average operating assets of the company over that time. The ratio shows us how much a company's profit exceeds its FCF.

Therefore, it's actually considered a good thing when a company has a negative accrual ratio, but a bad thing if its accrual ratio is positive. While having an accrual ratio above zero is of little concern, we do think it's worth noting when a company has a relatively high accrual ratio. Notably, there is some academic evidence that suggests that a high accrual ratio is a bad sign for near-term profits, generally speaking.

Over the twelve months to June 2025, Texas Pacific Land recorded an accrual ratio of 0.70. Ergo, its free cash flow is significantly weaker than its profit. Statistically speaking, that's a real negative for future earnings. Indeed, in the last twelve months it reported free cash flow of US$90m, which is significantly less than its profit of US$461.7m. Texas Pacific Land's free cash flow actually declined over the last year, but it may bounce back next year, since free cash flow is often more volatile than accounting profits.

Note: we always recommend investors check balance sheet strength. Click here to be taken to our balance sheet analysis of Texas Pacific Land.

Our Take On Texas Pacific Land's Profit Performance

As we discussed above, we think Texas Pacific Land's earnings were not supported by free cash flow, which might concern some investors. As a result, we think it may well be the case that Texas Pacific Land's underlying earnings power is lower than its statutory profit. But at least holders can take some solace from the 23% per annum growth in EPS for the last three. At the end of the day, it's essential to consider more than just the factors above, if you want to understand the company properly. If you'd like to know more about Texas Pacific Land as a business, it's important to be aware of any risks it's facing. You'd be interested to know, that we found 1 warning sign for Texas Pacific Land and you'll want to know about this.

Today we've zoomed in on a single data point to better understand the nature of Texas Pacific Land's profit. But there is always more to discover if you are capable of focussing your mind on minutiae. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks with significant insider holdings to be useful.

Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.

Discover if Texas Pacific Land might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.