A Look at Phillips 66’s Valuation Following Board Insider Buys and Elliott’s Activist Involvement

Phillips 66 (PSX) is back in the spotlight after the company’s board declared a $1.20 per share quarterly dividend. The dividend will be payable on December 1 to shareholders of record on November 17, 2025. This decision signals ongoing commitment to shareholder returns.

See our latest analysis for Phillips 66.

Momentum around Phillips 66 has been building thanks to headline-making insider purchases by its board and activist hedge fund Elliott Management gaining a bigger seat at the table. Over the past year, the share price has climbed 12.99% and the stock’s total shareholder return sits at a solid 1.2% for the same period, while five-year total shareholder return is an impressive 213.5%. This underlines long-term potential even as short-term gains fluctuate.

If you’re curious about what other established names in the sector have been doing, consider exploring See the full list for free.

With activist investors raising their price targets and insiders putting their own money on the line, the stage is set for Phillips 66. However, does current market momentum mean the stock is undervalued, or is future growth already priced in?

Most Popular Narrative: 51.9% Undervalued

According to mschoen25, the narrative calculates a fair value for Phillips 66 that is more than double the current market price of $129.27. This bold view highlights how key drivers may not be fully reflected in the market price right now.

Phillips 66 is a major player in the energy sector, particularly in refining, marketing, and transportation. Analysts often look at the company's ability to capitalize on operational efficiencies, asset optimization, and its integrated business model to improve profitability.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious why this narrative assigns such a significantly higher fair value than today’s price? The answer lies in projections for future efficiency gains and substantial shifts in margin expansion. Are these factors driving the real upside potential? Find out what supports the calculations in the full narrative.

Result: Fair Value of $268.71 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, a slowdown in demand or unexpected regulatory shifts could quickly challenge the optimistic margin growth narrative for Phillips 66.

Find out about the key risks to this Phillips 66 narrative.

Another View: What About Market Multiples?

While some see major upside, a check of the price-to-earnings ratio tells a different story. Phillips 66 trades at 30.6x, which is much higher than the US Oil and Gas industry average of 12.6x and also above its fair ratio of 21.9x. This could signal that future growth is already reflected in the current price. Is there more risk than it first appears?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Build Your Own Phillips 66 Narrative

If you’ve got a different take or want to check the facts yourself, you can dive in and build your own perspective in just a few minutes. Do it your way

A great starting point for your Phillips 66 research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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