PBF Energy (NYSE:PBF) rises 6.9% this week, taking three-year gains to 75%

It hasn't been the best quarter for PBF Energy Inc. (NYSE:PBF) shareholders, since the share price has fallen 19% in that time. But over three years, the returns would have left most investors smiling To wit, the share price did better than an index fund, climbing 67% during that period.

On the back of a solid 7-day performance, let's check what role the company's fundamentals have played in driving long term shareholder returns.

Check out our latest analysis for PBF Energy

PBF Energy wasn't profitable in the last twelve months, it is unlikely we'll see a strong correlation between its share price and its earnings per share (EPS). Arguably revenue is our next best option. When a company doesn't make profits, we'd generally hope to see good revenue growth. Some companies are willing to postpone profitability to grow revenue faster, but in that case one would hope for good top-line growth to make up for the lack of earnings.

PBF Energy's revenue trended up 7.8% each year over three years. Considering the company is losing money, we think that rate of revenue growth is uninspiring. The modest growth is probably broadly reflected in the share price, which is up 19%, per year over 3 years. Ultimately, the important thing is whether the company is trending to profitability. In this sort of situation it can be worth putting the stock on your watchlist. If it can become profitable, then even moderate revenue growth could grow profits quickly.

The image below shows how earnings and revenue have tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

PBF Energy is well known by investors, and plenty of clever analysts have tried to predict the future profit levels. You can see what analysts are predicting for PBF Energy in this interactive graph of future profit estimates.

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. We note that for PBF Energy the TSR over the last 3 years was 75%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

Investors in PBF Energy had a tough year, with a total loss of 34% (including dividends), against a market gain of about 28%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 3% per year over five years. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Consider risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for PBF Energy you should know about.

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of companies we expect will grow earnings.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.