Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now

Shareholders might have noticed that Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:PARR) filed its first-quarter result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 4.5% to US$29.62 in the past week. Revenues of US$2.0b beat expectations by 4.4%. Unfortunately statutory earnings per share (EPS) fell well short of the mark, turning in a loss of US$0.06 compared to previous analyst expectations of a profit. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for Par Pacific Holdings

Following the recent earnings report, the consensus from six analysts covering Par Pacific Holdings is for revenues of US$8.06b in 2024. This implies a perceptible 5.5% decline in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to plunge 51% to US$4.02 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$8.00b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$4.39 in 2024. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the small dip in their earnings per share numbers for next year.

The consensus price target held steady at US$40.17, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Par Pacific Holdings, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$47.00 and the most bearish at US$37.00 per share. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 7.3% by the end of 2024. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 16% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 2.2% per year. It's pretty clear that Par Pacific Holdings' revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Par Pacific Holdings' revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$40.17, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Par Pacific Holdings going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Before you take the next step you should know about the 4 warning signs for Par Pacific Holdings (1 can't be ignored!) that we have uncovered.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.