Industry Analysts Just Upgraded Their Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:PARR) Revenue Forecasts By 12%

Celebrations may be in order for Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:PARR) shareholders, with the analysts delivering a significant upgrade to their statutory estimates for the company. The consensus estimated revenue numbers rose, with their view now clearly much more bullish on the company's business prospects. The market seems to be pricing in some improvement in the business too, with the stock up 6.7% over the past week, closing at US$13.02. It will be interesting to see if this latest upgrade is enough to kickstart further buying interest in the stock.

Following the upgrade, the current consensus from Par Pacific Holdings' five analysts is for revenues of US$5.7b in 2022 which - if met - would reflect a huge 21% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. The losses are expected to disappear over the next year or so, with forecasts for a profit of US$1.28 per share this year. Prior to this update, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$5.1b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.93 in 2022. There has definitely been an improvement in perception recently, with the analysts substantially increasing both their earnings and revenue estimates.

Check out our latest analysis for Par Pacific Holdings

Despite these upgrades, the analysts have not made any major changes to their price target of US$17.21, suggesting that the higher estimates are not likely to have a long term impact on what the stock is worth. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Par Pacific Holdings analyst has a price target of US$19.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$15.00. With such a narrow range of valuations, analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. The analysts are definitely expecting Par Pacific Holdings' growth to accelerate, with the forecast 21% annualised growth to the end of 2022 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 13% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 2.8% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Par Pacific Holdings is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away from this upgrade is that analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates for this year, expecting improving business conditions. They also upgraded their revenue estimates for this year, and sales are expected to grow faster than the wider market. Given that analysts appear to be expecting substantial improvement in the sales pipeline, now could be the right time to take another look at Par Pacific Holdings.

Still, the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Par Pacific Holdings analysts - going out to 2024, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Another way to search for interesting companies that could be reaching an inflection point is to track whether management are buying or selling, with our free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.