Marathon Petroleum Corporation's (NYSE:MPC) Price In Tune With Earnings

Marathon Petroleum Corporation's (NYSE:MPC) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 26.4x might make it look like a sell right now compared to the market in the United States, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 19x and even P/E's below 11x are quite common. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the elevated P/E.

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While the market has experienced earnings growth lately, Marathon Petroleum's earnings have gone into reverse gear, which is not great. It might be that many expect the dour earnings performance to recover substantially, which has kept the P/E from collapsing. If not, then existing shareholders may be extremely nervous about the viability of the share price.

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How Is Marathon Petroleum's Growth Trending?

The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/E as high as Marathon Petroleum's is when the company's growth is on track to outshine the market.

If we review the last year of earnings, dishearteningly the company's profits fell to the tune of 65%. As a result, earnings from three years ago have also fallen 50% overall. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of earnings growth.

Turning to the outlook, the next three years should generate growth of 29% per year as estimated by the analysts watching the company. That's shaping up to be materially higher than the 11% each year growth forecast for the broader market.

In light of this, it's understandable that Marathon Petroleum's P/E sits above the majority of other companies. Apparently shareholders aren't keen to offload something that is potentially eyeing a more prosperous future.

The Final Word

It's argued the price-to-earnings ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.

We've established that Marathon Petroleum maintains its high P/E on the strength of its forecast growth being higher than the wider market, as expected. At this stage investors feel the potential for a deterioration in earnings isn't great enough to justify a lower P/E ratio. It's hard to see the share price falling strongly in the near future under these circumstances.

You should always think about risks. Case in point, we've spotted 2 warning signs for Marathon Petroleum you should be aware of.

Of course, you might also be able to find a better stock than Marathon Petroleum. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.