Stock Analysis

Here's Why We Think Marathon Petroleum (NYSE:MPC) Might Deserve Your Attention Today

NYSE:MPC
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The excitement of investing in a company that can reverse its fortunes is a big draw for some speculators, so even companies that have no revenue, no profit, and a record of falling short, can manage to find investors. Sometimes these stories can cloud the minds of investors, leading them to invest with their emotions rather than on the merit of good company fundamentals. While a well funded company may sustain losses for years, it will need to generate a profit eventually, or else investors will move on and the company will wither away.

So if this idea of high risk and high reward doesn't suit, you might be more interested in profitable, growing companies, like Marathon Petroleum (NYSE:MPC). Even if this company is fairly valued by the market, investors would agree that generating consistent profits will continue to provide Marathon Petroleum with the means to add long-term value to shareholders.

See our latest analysis for Marathon Petroleum

How Fast Is Marathon Petroleum Growing Its Earnings Per Share?

In business, profits are a key measure of success; and share prices tend to reflect earnings per share (EPS) performance. So for many budding investors, improving EPS is considered a good sign. It is awe-striking that Marathon Petroleum's EPS went from US$0.74 to US$25.53 in just one year. When you see earnings grow that quickly, it often means good things ahead for the company. But the key is discerning whether something profound has changed, or if this is a just a one-off boost.

Careful consideration of revenue growth and earnings before interest and taxation (EBIT) margins can help inform a view on the sustainability of the recent profit growth. Marathon Petroleum shareholders can take confidence from the fact that EBIT margins are up from 2.5% to 9.6%, and revenue is growing. Ticking those two boxes is a good sign of growth, in our book.

In the chart below, you can see how the company has grown earnings and revenue, over time. Click on the chart to see the exact numbers.

earnings-and-revenue-history
NYSE:MPC Earnings and Revenue History November 3rd 2022

Of course the knack is to find stocks that have their best days in the future, not in the past. You could base your opinion on past performance, of course, but you may also want to check this interactive graph of professional analyst EPS forecasts for Marathon Petroleum.

Are Marathon Petroleum Insiders Aligned With All Shareholders?

It's said that there's no smoke without fire. For investors, insider buying is often the smoke that indicates which stocks could set the market alight. This view is based on the possibility that stock purchases signal bullishness on behalf of the buyer. However, insiders are sometimes wrong, and we don't know the exact thinking behind their acquisitions.

Belief in the company remains high for insiders as there hasn't been a single share sold by the management or company board members. But the bigger deal is that the Independent Director, Charles Bunch, paid US$64k to buy shares at an average price of US$64.30. It seems at least one insider has seen potential in the company's future - and they're willing to put money on the line.

On top of the insider buying, it's good to see that Marathon Petroleum insiders have a valuable investment in the business. Indeed, they have a considerable amount of wealth invested in it, currently valued at US$198m. This comes in at 0.4% of shares in the company, which is a fair amount of a business of this size. So despite their percentage holding being low, company management still have plenty of reasons to deliver the best outcomes for investors.

Should You Add Marathon Petroleum To Your Watchlist?

Marathon Petroleum's earnings per share growth have been climbing higher at an appreciable rate. The icing on the cake is that insiders own a large chunk of the company and one has even been buying more shares. These factors seem to indicate the company's potential and that it has reached an inflection point. We'd suggest Marathon Petroleum belongs near the top of your watchlist. What about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Marathon Petroleum (of which 1 shouldn't be ignored!) you should know about.

Keen growth investors love to see insider buying. Thankfully, Marathon Petroleum isn't the only one. You can see a a free list of them here.

Please note the insider transactions discussed in this article refer to reportable transactions in the relevant jurisdiction.

Valuation is complex, but we're helping make it simple.

Find out whether Marathon Petroleum is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.