Stock Analysis

Chipotle Mexican Grill's (NYSE:CMG) five-year earnings growth trails the fantastic shareholder returns

NYSE:CMG
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Buying shares in the best businesses can build meaningful wealth for you and your family. And we've seen some truly amazing gains over the years. For example, the Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (NYSE:CMG) share price is up a whopping 371% in the last half decade, a handsome return for long term holders. If that doesn't get you thinking about long term investing, we don't know what will. It's also good to see the share price up 18% over the last quarter.

After a strong gain in the past week, it's worth seeing if longer term returns have been driven by improving fundamentals.

See our latest analysis for Chipotle Mexican Grill

There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

Over half a decade, Chipotle Mexican Grill managed to grow its earnings per share at 45% a year. This EPS growth is higher than the 36% average annual increase in the share price. So it seems the market isn't so enthusiastic about the stock these days. Of course, with a P/E ratio of 72.62, the market remains optimistic.

The company's earnings per share (over time) is depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

earnings-per-share-growth
NYSE:CMG Earnings Per Share Growth June 20th 2024

We consider it positive that insiders have made significant purchases in the last year. Having said that, most people consider earnings and revenue growth trends to be a more meaningful guide to the business. This free interactive report on Chipotle Mexican Grill's earnings, revenue and cash flow is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.

A Different Perspective

It's nice to see that Chipotle Mexican Grill shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 65% over the last year. That gain is better than the annual TSR over five years, which is 36%. Therefore it seems like sentiment around the company has been positive lately. In the best case scenario, this may hint at some real business momentum, implying that now could be a great time to delve deeper. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for Chipotle Mexican Grill that you should be aware of.

There are plenty of other companies that have insiders buying up shares. You probably do not want to miss this free list of undervalued small cap companies that insiders are buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

Valuation is complex, but we're helping make it simple.

Find out whether Chipotle Mexican Grill is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.

View the Free Analysis

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Valuation is complex, but we're helping make it simple.

Find out whether Chipotle Mexican Grill is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.

View the Free Analysis

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com