Helmerich & Payne (HP): Reassessing Valuation After a Sharp 90-Day Share Price Rebound

Helmerich & Payne (HP) shares have quietly pushed higher over the past 3 months, even as the one year return still lags. That mix creates an interesting setup for value focused investors.

See our latest analysis for Helmerich & Payne.

With the share price now at $30.31, HP’s recent 90 day share price return of 45.65% contrasts sharply with a weaker 1 year total shareholder return of negative 9.56%, hinting that momentum is rebuilding after a tougher stretch.

If this rebound has you rethinking energy and cyclicals, it can also be a good moment to explore fast growing stocks with high insider ownership for other potentially compelling ideas.

So with HP trading above analyst targets but still showing a sizeable intrinsic value discount and a mixed return profile, is this the start of a mispriced recovery, or are markets already baking in a brighter future?

Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 11.4% Overvalued

Compared with Helmerich & Payne’s last close at $30.31, the most followed narrative points to a lower fair value, suggesting expectations may be running ahead of fundamentals.

The Fair Value estimate has risen moderately from approximately $24.00 to about $27.20, reflecting a higher intrinsic valuation per share. The future P/E multiple has increased meaningfully from roughly 13.9x to about 16.3x, indicating a higher valuation placed on expected earnings.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see what is driving that richer earnings multiple? Behind this setup sit shifting growth assumptions, changing margin math, and a bolder long term rerating story.

Result: Fair Value of $27.20 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, growing rig overcapacity and H&P’s heavy North America shale exposure could restrain day rates and margins, which may challenge the bullish re-rating story.

Find out about the key risks to this Helmerich & Payne narrative.

Another Lens on Value

While the most popular narrative sees HP as 11.4% overvalued versus a $27.20 fair value, our SWS DCF model paints a very different picture, indicating the shares trade at a steep 52.6% discount to an intrinsic fair value of $63.96. Which story will the market ultimately endorse?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

Build Your Own Helmerich & Payne Narrative

If you see the story differently, or simply want to dig into the numbers yourself, you can build a full narrative in minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Helmerich & Payne research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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